TITLE

Measuring uncertainty in complex decision analysis models

AUTHOR(S)
Parmigiani, G
PUB. DATE
December 2002
SOURCE
Statistical Methods in Medical Research;Dec2002, Vol. 11 Issue 6, p513
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
journal article
ABSTRACT
Prediction models used in support of clinical and health policy decision making often need to consider the course of a disease over an extended period of time, and draw evidence from a broad knowledge base, including epidemiologic cohort and case control studies, randomized clinical trials, expert opinions, and more. This paper is a brief introduction to these complex decision models, their relation to Bayesian decision theory, and the tools typically used to describe the uncertainties involved. Concepts are illustrated throughout via a simplified tutorial.
ACCESSION #
8906406

 

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