Measuring uncertainty in complex decision analysis models

Parmigiani, G
December 2002
Statistical Methods in Medical Research;Dec2002, Vol. 11 Issue 6, p513
Academic Journal
journal article
Prediction models used in support of clinical and health policy decision making often need to consider the course of a disease over an extended period of time, and draw evidence from a broad knowledge base, including epidemiologic cohort and case control studies, randomized clinical trials, expert opinions, and more. This paper is a brief introduction to these complex decision models, their relation to Bayesian decision theory, and the tools typically used to describe the uncertainties involved. Concepts are illustrated throughout via a simplified tutorial.


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