TITLE

Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration

AUTHOR(S)
Azose, Jonathan; Raftery, Adrian; Azose, Jonathan J; Raftery, Adrian E
PUB. DATE
October 2015
SOURCE
Demography;Oct2015, Vol. 52 Issue 5, p1627
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
journal article
ABSTRACT
We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net migration. We evaluate our model using out-of-sample validation and compare point projections to the projected migration rates from a persistence model similar to the method used in the United Nations' World Population Prospects, and also to a state-of-the-art gravity model.
ACCESSION #
110340255

 

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