International Comparison and Forecast of China Biofuel Production: based on Hubbert model

Mingyu Li; Guangsheng Zhang
July 2014
Advanced Materials Research;2014, Vol. 953-954, p240
Academic Journal
In recent years, China biofuel has been developed rapidly, but still has certain gap with other countries such as U.S. and so on. This paper makes brief comparison of the China's biofuel production with the U.S. firstly, and finds that smallest gap of biofuel production between two countries happened in 2006, and expands later. In order to judge the production changes of biofuel, the Hubbert model is used to analyze possible trends of the China biofuel production by first generation Secondly, based on the forecast scenarios, which are set according to resources and the technical factors. The results show that production would possibly reach the peak around 66 million barrels in 2025. Finally, this paper compares future Sino-U.S. biofuel production trends, and finds that China's biofuel production in 2020 would be same as that of the U.S. in 2003.


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