Forrest, E.H.; Evans, C.D.; Murray, L.S.; Morris, A.J.
April 2003
Gut;Apr2003 Supplement 1, Vol. 52, pA1
Academic Journal
Introduction: The modified Maddrey's Discriminant Function (DF) is used to identify poor prognosis acute alcoholic hepatitis (AAH). This calculation requires conversion of serum bilirubin from mg/dl to µmol/I and a corrected calculation of prothrombin time (PT) prolongation. The DF is therefore awkward to use in a clinical setting. We aimed to identify variables related to mortality in patients with AAH. Methods: Clinical and laboratory data was collected from 256 patients with clinical AAH. Stepwise logistic regression identified variables associated with mortality. Results: Day 1 and 7 variables associated with short term (28 day) and medium term (84 day) mortality are displayed in Table 1. The correct predictions for each model and the DF are shown in Table 2. Conclusions: The DF failed to identify the majority of patients who died. The variables we identified significantly improved the identification of patents with poor short and medium term prognosis.


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