TITLE

Evolving UK and US macroeconomic dynamics through the lens of a model of deterministic structural change

AUTHOR(S)
Kapetanios, George; Yates, Tony
PUB. DATE
August 2014
SOURCE
Empirical Economics;Aug2014, Vol. 47 Issue 1, p305
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
Using a model of deterministic structural change, we revisit several topics in inflation dynamics explored previously using stochastic, time-varying parameter models. We document significant reductions in inflation persistence and predictability. We estimate that changes in the volatility of shocks were decisive in accounting for the great moderations of the United States and the United Kingdom. We also show that the magnitude and the persistence of the response of inflation and output to monetary policy shocks has fallen in these two countries. These findings should be of interest in those seeking to resolve theoretical debates about the sources of apparent nominal and real frictions in the macroeconomy, and the causes of the Great Moderation.
ACCESSION #
96857936

 

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