Modelling Brazilian Export Commodities Using Box-Jenkins Procedure

Camargo, Maria Emilia; Lain, Gabriela; Cardoso, Eduardo Luis; da Motta Xavier, Eduardo
May 2014
Australian Journal of Basic & Applied Sciences;May2014, Vol. 8 Issue 7, p329
Academic Journal
Background: Currently, Brazil stands out in the international arena to be a global trader in commodity exports, which represent a significant portion of its GDP - Gross Domestic Product. Within this context, this article proposes to analyze by means of the ARIMA model to predict the behavior of monthly exports of major commodities in Brazil. The commodities studied in this article were coffee beans, soybeans, soybean meal, crude soybean oil, orange juice, raw sugar, refined sugar, cellulose, aluminum, swine meat in natura, chicken meat in natura, manufactured iron / steel, rolled leather, leaf tobacco, iron ore, gasoline, fuel oil, crude oil, cotton, corn and ethanol. The behavior of exports of each commodity was analyzed by the application AUTOBOX® software, version 1.2, with data collected between January 2006 to May 2011, obtained from the website of the Ministry of Development, Industry and Trade of Brazil (MDIC). Were considered valid predictive models that had R2 above 70%, and the results provide a powerful tool for analyzing the market for commodities, as they show the trend of export values for a short time horizon, serving aid to decision making, especially for the trading agents.


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