Atmospheric teleconnection patterns associated with severe and mild ice cover on the Great Lakes, 1963-2011

Bai, Xuezhi; Wang, Jia
July 2012
Water Quality Research Journal of Canada (IWA Publishing);2012, Vol. 47 Issue 3/4, p421
Academic Journal
Atmospheric teleconnection circulation patterns associated with severe and mild ice cover over the Great Lakes are investigated using the composite analysis of lake ice data and National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data for the period 1963-2011. The teleconnection pattern associated with the severe ice cover is the combination of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or Arctic Oscillation (AO) and negative phase of Pacific/North America (PNA) pattern, while the pattern associated with the mild ice cover is the combination of a positive PNA (or an El Niño) and a positive phase of the NAO/AO. These two extreme ice conditions are associated with the North American ridge-trough variations. The intensified ridge-trough system produces a strong northwest-to-southeast tilted ridge and trough and increases the anomalous northwesterly wind, advecting cold, dry Arctic air to the Great Lakes. The weakened ridge-trough system produces a flattened ridge and trough, and promotes a climatological westerly wind, advecting warm, dry air from western North America to the Great Lakes. Although ice cover for all the individual lakes responds roughly linearly and symmetrically to both phases of the NAO/AO, and roughly nonlinearly and asymmetrically to El Niño and La Niña events, the overall ice cover response to individual NAO/AO or Niño3.4 index is not statistically significant. The combined NAO/AO and Niño3.4 indices can be used to reliably project severe ice cover during the simultaneous -NAO/AO and La Niña events, and mild ice cover during the simultaneous +NAO/AO and El Niño events.


Related Articles

  • Madden-Julian Oscillation prediction and teleconnections in the S2S database. Vitart, Frédéric // Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society;Jul2017, Vol. 143 Issue 706, p2210 

    The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been diagnosed in the World Weather Research Program (WWRP)/World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Sub-seasonal to Seasonal prediction project (S2S) database using the Wheeler and Hendon index over the common hindcast period 1999-2010. The S2S models...

  • Tropical and Stratospheric Influences on Extratropical Short-Term Climate Variability. Newman, Matthew; Sardeshmukh, Prashant D. // Journal of Climate;Sep2008, Vol. 21 Issue 17, p4326 

    The relative impacts of tropical diabatic heating and stratospheric circulation anomalies on wintertime extratropical tropospheric variability are investigated in a linear inverse model (LIM) derived from the observed zero lag and 5-day lag covariances of 7-day running mean departures from the...

  • Seasonal to decadal prediction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation: emerging capability and future prospects. Smith, Doug M.; Scaife, Adam A.; Eade, Rosie; Knight, Jeff R. // Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society;Jan2016, Vol. 142 Issue 695, Part B, p611 

    European and North American winter weather is dominated by year-to-year variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which controls the direction and speed of the prevailing winds. An ability to forecast the time-averaged NAO months to years ahead would be of great societal benefit, but...

  • The GloSea4 Ensemble Prediction System for Seasonal Forecasting. Arribas, Alberto; Glover, M.; Maidens, A.; Peterson, K.; Gordon, M.; MacLachlan, C.; Graham, R.; Fereday, D.; Camp, J.; Scaife, A. A.; Xavier, P.; McLean, P.; Colman, A.; Cusack, S. // Monthly Weather Review;Jun2011, Vol. 139 Issue 6, p1891 

    Seasonal forecasting systems, and related systems for decadal prediction, are crucial in the development of adaptation strategies to climate change. However, despite important achievements in this area in the last 10 years, significant levels of skill are only generally found over regions...

  • Contributions of advection and melting processes to the decline in sea ice in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean. Bi, Haibo; Yang, Qinghua; Liang, Xi; Zhang, Liang; Wang, Yunhe; Liang, Yu; Huang, Haijun // Cryosphere;2019, Vol. 13 Issue 5, p1423 

    The Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean (PA, hereafter) is a region sensitive to climate change. Given the alarming changes in sea ice cover during recent years, knowledge of sea ice loss with respect to ice advection and melting processes has become critical. With satellite-derived products from...

  • On the Temporally Varying Northward Penetration of Mediterranean Overflow Water and Eastward Penetration of Labrador Sea Water. Lozier, M. Susan; Stewart, Nicole M. // Journal of Physical Oceanography;Sep2008, Vol. 38 Issue 9, p2097 

    Historical hydrographic data in the eastern North Atlantic are used to suggest a connection between the northward penetration of Mediterranean Overflow Water (MOW) and the location of the subpolar front, the latter of which is shown to vary with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During...

  • Response of a Simplified Oceanic General Circulation Model to Idealized NAO-like Stochastic Forcing. Herbaut, C.; Sirven, J.; Fevrier, S. // Journal of Physical Oceanography;Nov2002, Vol. 32 Issue 11, p3182 

    The response of a simplified model of the subtropical and subpolar gyres to a mechanical stochastic forcing that mimics the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is studied. An internal damped mode of oscillation with a 22-24-yr period is found, with a maximum amplitude in the northwestern part of...

  • Causes of Atlantic Ocean Climate Variability between 1958 and 1998. Seager, Richard; Kushnir, Yochanan; Visbeck, Martin; Naik, Naomi; Miller, Jennifer; Krahmann, Gerd; Cullen, Heidi // Journal of Climate;8/15/2000, Vol. 13 Issue 16, p1 

    Numerical experiments are performed to examine the causes of variability of Atlantic Ocean SST during the period covered by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction--National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP--NCAR) reanalysis (1958--98). Three ocean models are used. Two are mixed...

  • The Role of Ocean Dynamics for Low-Frequency Fluctuations of the NAO in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM. Christoph, M.; Ulbrich, U.; Oberhuber, J.M.; Roeckner, E. // Journal of Climate;7/15/2000, Vol. 13 Issue 14, p2536 

    Variability at all timescales, including low-frequency variability, is found in the North Atlantic sector in a 300-yr control integration of the coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM) ECHAM4/ OPYC3. The atmospheric variability is dominated by the North Atlantic Oscillation...


Read the Article


Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics