TITLE

Impacts of 21st century climate change on global air pollution-related premature mortality

AUTHOR(S)
Fang, Yuanyuan; Mauzerall, Denise L.; Liu, Junfeng; Fiore, Arlene M.; Horowitz, Larry W.
PUB. DATE
November 2013
SOURCE
Climatic Change;Nov2013, Vol. 121 Issue 2, p239
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
Climate change modulates surface concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) and ozone (O 3), indirectly affecting premature mortality attributed to air pollution. We estimate the change in global premature mortality and years of life lost (YLL) associated with changes in surface O 3 and PM 2.5 over the 21st century as a result of climate change. We use a global coupled chemistry-climate model to simulate current and future climate and the effect of changing climate on air quality. Epidemiological concentration-response relationships are applied to estimate resulting changes in premature mortality and YLL. The effect of climate change on air quality is isolated by holding emissions of air pollutants constant while allowing climate to evolve over the 21st century according to a moderate projection of greenhouse gas emissions (A1B scenario). Resulting changes in 21st century climate alone lead to an increase in simulated PM 2.5 concentrations globally, and to higher (lower) O 3 concentrations over populated (remote) regions. Global annual premature mortality associated with chronic exposure to PM 2.5 increases by approximately 100 thousand deaths (95 % confidence interval, CI, of 66–130 thousand) with corresponding YLL increasing by nearly 900 thousand (95 % CI, 576–1,128 thousand) years. The annual premature mortality due to respiratory disease associated with chronic O 3 exposure increases by +6,300 deaths (95 % CI, 1,600–10,400). This climate penalty indicates that stronger emission controls will be needed in the future to meet current air quality standards and to avoid higher health risks associated with climate change induced worsening of air quality over populated regions.
ACCESSION #
91907602

 

Related Articles

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of VIRGINIA BEACH PUBLIC LIBRARY AND SYSTEM

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics