TITLE

A kernel-based Bayesian approach to climatic reconstruction

AUTHOR(S)
Robertson, I.; Switsur, V.R.; Carter, A.H.C.; Lucy, D.; Baxter, L.; Pollard, A.M.; Aykroyd, R.G.; Barker, A.C.; Waterhouse, J.S.
PUB. DATE
July 1999
SOURCE
Holocene;Jul99, Vol. 9 Issue 4, p495
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
To understand recent climatic trends and possible future climatic change, it is necessary to examine the nature of past climatic variability. Proxy measures of past climatic fluctuations can be used to extend this record beyond the limited period of instrumental measurements. Regression-based techniques are generally used to define transfer functions, which describe the statistical relationship between these proxy estimates of past climate and measured climatic parameters. Although these regression-based techniques have been extremely successful, they can engender bias in the estimates if not used with care. More significantly, we show that if regression errors are explicitly calculated they are often similar in magnitude to the total range of the parameter being estimated, implying that such reconstructions of past climate cannot be regarded as truly precise. A novel approach based upon Bayes’ theorem is introduced which appears to increase the statistical veracity of such climatic reconstructions.
ACCESSION #
8962375

 

Related Articles

  • PROBABILISTIC MULTI-PERSON TRACKING USING DYNAMIC BAYES NETWORKS. Klinger, T.; Rottensteiner, F.; Heipke, C. // ISPRS Annals of Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing & Spatial Informa;8/19/2015, Vol. 2 Issue 3-W5, p435 

    Tracking-by-detection is a widely used practice in recent tracking systems. These usually rely on independent single frame detections that are handled as observations in a recursive estimation framework. If these observations are imprecise the generated trajectory is prone to be updated towards...

  • Faith, hope and statistics. Matthews, Robert, // New Scientist;11/22/97, Vol. 156 Issue 2109, p36 

    Focuses on the recognition of the Bayes theorem in the age of high technology. Fundamental level of the theorem; Problems of probability in the field of science; Involvement of the Bayesian inference in extrasensory perception; Ability of the Bayes theorem to reveal true significance of new...

  • Measuring confirmation. Christensen, David // Journal of Philosophy;Sep1999, Vol. 96 Issue 9, p437 

    Examines formal models of philosophy based on Bayesian theories to match with the intuitive quantitative confirmation judgment. Influence of indeterminateness on the positive-relevance model; Impact of the diachronic and synchronic old-evidence problems based on likelihood ratio; Determination...

  • Bronze age computer dating. Geake, Elisabeth // New Scientist;5/7/94, Vol. 142 Issue 1924, p17 

    Reports on the significance of using Bayesian theorem in combining the different age-testing data. Conflicting results from stratigraphy and carbon dating; Use of Bayesian theorem as mathematical treatment of the data; Computer-based simulation technique; Reduction of the margin of error;...

  • Probability Theory in the Use of Diagnostic Tests. Sox, Harold C. // Annals of Internal Medicine;Jan86, Vol. 104 Issue 1, p60 

    Provides an understanding of methods that are useful in formulating advice about when to use diagnostic tests. Principles involved in the approach to determining choice of diagnostic tests; Discussion of the post-test probability of disease; Application of Bayes' theorem.

  • Predicting end-stage renal disease: Bayesian perspective of information transfer in the clinical decision-making process at the individual level. Dimitrov, Borislav D.; Perna, Annalisa; Ruggenenti, Piero; Remuzzi, Giuseppe // Kidney International;May2003, Vol. 63 Issue 5, p1924 

    Predicting end-stage renal disease: Bayesian perspective of information transfer in the clinical decision-making process at the individual level. Background. Predicting outcomes such as end-stage renal disease (ESRD) by integration and better utilization at individual level of epidemiologic data...

  • Mind Bender. Sanders, Seiche // Quality Progress;Mar2014, Vol. 47 Issue 3, p5 

    An introduction is presented in which the editor discusses various reports within the issue including "Probing Probabilities" by William Hooper, a report on Bayes’ theorem by Christine Anderson-Cook, and "Will to Live" by Brian Csikos.

  • Diagnostic testing: the importance of context. Summerton, Nick // British Journal of General Practice;Aug2007, Vol. 57 Issue 541, p678 

    The article focuses on the importance of diagnostic testing. It states that the other elements of clinical assessment and the place of the new technology within a diagnostic processing pathway must be considered in interpreting the results of any such diagnostic research and assessing the...

  • Logical and Geometric Inquiry. Joseph, R. I.; Fry, R. L.; Dogra, V. K. // AIP Conference Proceedings;2003, Vol. 659 Issue 1, p243 

    This paper proposes a framework for quantifying logical and geometric inquiry through specific interpretations of Bayes' Theorem and Information Theory. In logical inquiry there are a countable number of possible discrete answers that define the inquiry, and Bayes' Theorem serves to move the...

  • Entropic priors for discrete probabilistic networks and for mixtures of Gaussians models. Rodriguez, C. C. // AIP Conference Proceedings;2002, Vol. 617 Issue 1, p410 

    The ongoing unprecedented exponential explosion of available computing power, has radically transformed the methods of statistical inference. What used to be a small minority of statisticians advocating for the use of priors and a strict adherence to bayes theorem, it is now becoming the norm...

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of VIRGINIA BEACH PUBLIC LIBRARY AND SYSTEM

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics