Ciclos de negocios en Colombia, 1975-2011

Alfonso, Viviana; Arango, Luis; Arias, Fernando; Cangrejo, Guillermo; Pulido, José
January 2013
Lecturas de Economia;ene-jun2013, Issue 78, p115
Academic Journal
We propose a chronology for business cycles in Colombia following the NBER classic notion; that is, dates of peaks and troughs of economic activity are estimated without decomposing the series used in their transitory and permanent components. The estimated chronology suggests that the four complete cycles that occurred between 1975 and 2011 are asymmetric and have an approximate duration of 6.8 years. Expansions lasted, on average, 5.4 years while contractions took about 1.3 years. These results are derived from the application of the cumulative diffusion index to 41 series.


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