March 2013
Florida Scientist;Spring2013, Vol. 76 Issue 2, p229
Academic Journal
The Southwest Florida Water Management District funded salinity regression modeling for the determination of minimum flows of the tidal Myakka River. Selected isohaline (1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 20, and 24 PSU) locations were modeled as a function of weather terms, tidal conditions, and a variety of weighted daily flows of the Myakka River near Sarasota, FL, the tributary Myakkahatchee Creek, and the Peace River near Arcadia. Peace River flows were included due to potential influence on downriver boundary conditions. The most influential variables were variably weighted flow terms, weighted over periods based on both flow and the riverine volume upstream of the computed isohaline location. Adjusted multiple r² of the regressions for 8 PSU and lower isohaline locations were 0.80 or better (n~70-100). Regressions were validated with a subset of data withheld from regression development. Regressions were used to simulate time series of isohaline positions under both existing flows and potential flow reductions. Changes in isohaline locations could then be used to evaluate amounts of critical habitats (benthic, freshwater marsh, forested wetlands) exposed to salinity intervals, to compute the projected changes in isohaline locations under reduced flow scenarios, and to balance projected flow reductions with potential habitat alterations.


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