TITLE

Age Cohort Analysis and the S&P 500 Dividend Yield

AUTHOR(S)
Deegan, Jim
PUB. DATE
October 2002
SOURCE
Business Economics;Oct2002, Vol. 37 Issue 4, p20
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
This paper presents the theory and analysis of a partial equilibrium econometric model of capital market supply and demand. A major feature of the model is its emphasis on the role of demographics. The most important implication of this analysis is that demographic factors are likely to result in the S&P 500 trading in the 850 to 1500 range for the next ten years, even given a strong economy. The S&P 500 dividend yield should increase about one-third by 2013 as foreign capital inflows wane, government surpluses disappear, and the baby boom generation approaches old age.(n1) Yields on long term bonds will likely tend to drift upward along with increases in the S&P 500 dividend yield. A secondary conclusion is that investment and consumer durable goods industries will grow much faster than the economy as a whole through the year 2011.
ACCESSION #
7901004

 

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