Chen Ling; Pen-Guozhong
June 1987
Management Science;Jun87, Vol. 33 Issue 6, p739
Academic Journal
In this paper, a predictive model is designed to provide the Educational Department of China with the information necessary to draw up the program (1985-2000) for education development. This model contains two submodels, that is, the predictive model to the annual teacher's number of each title and the fuzzy predictive model to the annual teacher's number of each age. The first submodel is a Markov Chain model and the second submodel is a fuzzy predictive model. Before establishing the second submodel, the fuzzy set of judging indices for the promotion of teachers and the reasonable age's regions for the promotion of teachers for each title were stated and the fuzzy membership functions for every judging index were established by using the fuzzy statistical method. In this paper, a method is presented for establishing models. The predictive models are widely useful. Not only can the models be used in the educational departments, but they can also be used for making promotion policy in other administrative departments.


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