TITLE

The global recession and China's stimulus package: A general equilibrium assessment of country level impacts

AUTHOR(S)
Diao, Xinshen; Zhang, Yumei; Chen, Kevin Z.
PUB. DATE
March 2012
SOURCE
China Economic Review (1043951X);Mar2012, Vol. 23 Issue 1, p1
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
Abstract: A dynamic computable general equilibrium model is developed to assess the impact of the recent global recession and the Chinese government''s stimulus package on China''s economic growth. By designing two scenarios � one with and one without the stimulus package � the model results show that GDP growth rate in 2009 could have fallen to 2.9% without the stimulus package, mainly as a result of the sharp decline in exports of manufactured goods. Under the stimulus scenario, with the generated additional demand on investment goods, the Chinese economy grows 8�10% in 2009 and the succeeding years. The model also measures the overall gains of the stimulus package, and the cumulative GDP growth difference between the two scenarios for 2009�15 is about RMB76 trillion.
ACCESSION #
70287369

Tags: RECESSIONS;  EQUILIBRIUM (Economics);  ECONOMIC impact;  ECONOMIC models;  ECONOMIC development;  GROSS domestic product

 

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