Understanding the Crude Oil Price: How Important Is the China Factor?

Xiaoyi Mu; Haichun Ye
October 2011
Energy Journal;2011, Vol. 32 Issue 4, p69
Academic Journal
This paper employs monthly data on China's net oil import from January 1997 to June 2010 to assess the role of China's net import in the evolution of the crude oil price. Based on a vector autoregression (VAR) analysis, we find that the growth of China's net oil import has no significant impact on monthly oil price changes and there is no Granger causality between the two variables. The historical decomposition indicates that shocks to China's oil demand have only played a small role in the oil price run-up of 2002-2008. We also calculate the price changes implied by China's net oil import growth from a longer-term supply and demand shift perspective.


Related Articles

  • Prices rocket despite Saudi calls for calm.  // MEED: Middle East Economic Digest;5/14/2004, Vol. 48 Issue 20, p16 

    Presents an update on oil prices as of May 14, 2004. Implications of the increase in oil prices for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries; Price of U.S. light crude; Global oil demand growth in 2004.

  • Oil and Gas Producers. Peters, Josh; Chenoweth, Eric // Morningstar DividendInvestor;Dec2006, Vol. 2 Issue 11, Special section p10 

    The article presents an interview with Eric Chenoweth, associate director of equity research at Morningstar, about energy prices and prospects for the companies dependent on those prices. He explains the reason behind the price drop of oil and natural gas prices. He discusses Morningstar's...

  • Davos: the oil shock strikes back?  // MarketWatch: Global Round-up;Mar2009, Vol. 8 Issue 3, p195 

    In this article the author discusses the factors that affect the increase and decrease oil prices worldwide. The author argues that the increase is caused by supply constraints in emerging countries and growing uncertainty of the global financial markets. According to the author, economic...

  • OIL PRICES SLIDE BELOW $100 A BARREL, BUT SUPPORT LOOMS. G. P. // Global Finance;Oct2008, Vol. 22 Issue 9, p14 

    The article reports that crude oil prices fell below $100 a barrel for the first time in six months in mid-September 2008. It is stated that the slowing global economy was expected to curb demand for oil, but the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was keeping a close watch on prices...

  • India : Price Changes w.e.f midnight of 31st July/1st Augand#39;14.  // TendersInfo News;8/1/2014, p1 

    The article reports on the petroleum price changes in India from midnight of July 31 to August 1, 2014.

  • Gasoline Up 78¢ Over Year Ago; Diesel Up 99¢.  // BEEF Exclusive Insight;3/18/2011, p5 

    The article discusses the risks of Libyan oil exports disruption that led to an increase in U.S. fuel prices to 3.57 U.S. dollars (USD) per gallon as of March 2011, which is 78 cents higher than the 2010 price.

  • Import, export prices rise. Investor's Business Daily // Investors Business Daily;10/24/2013, pA02 

    Sept. import prices rose 0.2%, with petroleum costs up 0.8%. Annually, import prices are down 1%. Export prices rose 0.3%, higher than the consensus of a 0.1% drop and Aug.'s 0.5% fall amid swings in agriculture pricing.

  • Winners (and losers) of the oil price drop. BAKER, SOPHIE // Pensions & Investments;1/12/2015, Vol. 43 Issue 1, p0026 

    The article provides information on issues concerning the advantages and adverse impact of oil price drop on oil importers.

  • Iraq export surge threat.  // MEED: Middle East Economic Digest;7/25/1997, Vol. 41 Issue 30, p23 

    Focuses on the Centre for Global Energy Studies' (CGES) assessment of the possible impact of Iraqi crude oil exports on prices. Terms of a United Nations resolution to allow Iraq to restart sales of up to $1000 million worth of oil in two 90-day periods; Estimates regarding Israeli crude oil...


Read the Article


Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics