TITLE

Two-Step Approach for the Prediction of Future Type 2 Diabetes Risk

AUTHOR(S)
ABDUL-GHANI, MUHAMMAD A.; ABDUL-GHANI, TAMAM; STERN, MICHAEL P.; KARAVIC, JASMINA; TUOMI, TIINAMAIJA; BO, INSOMA; DEFRONZO, RALPH A.; GROOP, LEIF
PUB. DATE
September 2011
SOURCE
Diabetes Care;Sep2011, Vol. 34 Issue 9, p2108
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE--To develop a model for the prediction of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk on the basis of a multivariate logistic model and 1-h plasma glucose concentration (1-h PG). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS--The model was developed in a cohort of 1,562 nondiabetic subjects from the San Antonio Heart Study (SAHS) and validated in 2,395 nondiabetic subjects in the Botnia Study. A risk score on the basis of anthropometric parameters, plasma glucose and lipid profile, and blood pressure was computed for each subject. Subjects with a risk score above a certain cut point were considered to represent high-risk individuals, and their 1-h PG concentration during the oral glucose tolerance test was used to further refine their future T2DM risk. RESULTS--We used the San Antonio Diabetes Prediction Model (SADPM) to generate the initial risk score. A risk-score value of 0.065 was found to be an optimal cut point for initial screening and selection of high-risk individuals. A 1-h PG concentration > 140 mg/dL in high-risk individuals (whose risk score was >0.065) was the optimal cut point for identification of subjects at increased risk. The two cut points had 77.8, 77.4, and 44.8% (for the SAHS) and 75.8, 71.6, and 11.9% (for the Botnia Study) sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value, respectively, in the SAHS and Botnia Study. CONCLUSIONS--A two-step model, based on the combination of the SADPM and 1-h PG, is a useful tool for the identification of high-risk Mexican-American and Caucasian individuals.
ACCESSION #
67069550

 

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