TITLE

Dynamics of hourly sea level at Hillarys Boat Harbour, Western Australia: a chaos theory perspective

AUTHOR(S)
Khatibi, Rahman; Ghorbani, Mohammad; Aalami, Mohammad; Kocak, Kasim; Makarynskyy, Oleg; Makarynska, Dina; Aalinezhad, Mahdi
PUB. DATE
November 2011
SOURCE
Ocean Dynamics;Nov2011, Vol. 61 Issue 11, p1797
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
Water level forecasting using recorded time series can provide a local modelling capability to facilitate local proactive management practices. To this end, hourly sea water level time series are investigated. The records collected at the Hillarys Boat Harbour, Western Australia, are investigated over the period of 2000 and 2002. Two modelling techniques are employed: low-dimensional dynamic model, known as the deterministic chaos theory, and genetic programming, GP. The phase space, which describes the evolution of the behaviour of a nonlinear system in time, was reconstructed using the delay-embedding theorem suggested by Takens. The presence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the phase space reconstruction and correlation dimension methods, and also the predictability into the future was calculated by the largest Lyapunov exponent to be 437 h or 18 days into the future. The intercomparison of results of the local prediction and GP models shows that for this site-specific dataset, the local prediction model has a slight edge over GP. However, rather than recommending one technique over another, the paper promotes a pluralistic modelling culture, whereby different techniques should be tested to gain a specific insight from each of the models. This would enable a consensus to be drawn from a set of results rather than ignoring the individual insights provided by each model.
ACCESSION #
67030979

 

Related Articles

  • Nonlinear time series analysis of electrocardiograms. Bezerianos, A.; Bountis, T.; Papaioannou, G.; Polydoropoulos, P. // Chaos;Mar1995, Vol. 5 Issue 1, p95 

    Attempts to measure the correlation dimension of an electrocardiogram time series of six male subjects. Utilization of methods and techniques of nonlinear time series analysis; Principles of chaotic dynamics; Removal of temporal correlations between points.

  • Nonlinear analysis of the ripping head power time series. Litak, Grzegorz; Syta, Arkadiusz; Gajewski, Jakub; Jonak, Józef // Journal of Vibroengineering;Mar2011, Vol. 13 Issue 1, p39 

    No abstract available.

  • Study on Parameter Selection of Phase Space Reconstruction for Chaotic Time Series. Wenyuan Zhang; Yunfei Ma; Gang Yang // Advances in Information Sciences & Service Sciences;Feb2012, Vol. 4 Issue 2, p67 

    Based on the principle that the selection of delay time and embedding dimension has no correlation in the process of phase space reconstruction, this paper puts forward a new method of identifying the embedding dimension by Cao Liangyue Theory (CAO Theory) after the delay time is identified by...

  • Power Forecasting of Combined Heating and Cooling Systems Based on Chaotic Time Series. Hai, Liu; Yong, Song; Qingfu, Du // Journal of Control Science & Engineering;5/12/2015, Vol. 2015, p1 

    Theoretic analysis shows that the output power of the distributed generation system is nonlinear and chaotic. And it is coupled with the microenvironment meteorological data. Chaos is an inherent property of nonlinear dynamic system. A predicator of the output power of the distributed generation...

  • Implementation of Information Technology for Identification of Dynamic Chaos and Pseudophase Reconstruction of Attractors of One-Dimensional Realization. Danylov, V. Ya.; Zinchenko, A. Yu.; Marchuk, P. P. // Naukovi visti NTUU - KPI;2011, Vol. 2011 Issue 2, p59 

    In this paper, we have offered the information technology of chaotic behavior identification of one-dimensional scalar realization of dynamic systems, scalar time series and the pseudophase reconstruction of their attractors. The applied methodology is based on 14 different modern methods. To...

  • Long-range time dependence in the cross-correlation function. Carreras, B.A.; Newman, D.E. // Physics of Plasmas;Feb99, Vol. 6 Issue 2, p485 

    Examines the extension of a method for investigating long-range dependence in a single time series to the calculation of the cross-correlation function. Accuracy of the determination of the cross-correlation function for long time lags; Testing of the method by applying it to fractional...

  • CORRELATION MODELS WITH LONG-RANGE DEPENDENCE. Chunsieng Ma // Journal of Applied Probability;Jun2002, Vol. 39 Issue 2, p370 

    Considers the correlation structure of a stationary discrete time-series with long memory or long-range dependence. Description of the general case; Models of slowly decaying and related correlations; Spectral density with at most one singular point; Correlations with short-range dependence.

  • Chaotic dynamics of sea clutter. Haykin, Simon; Puthusserypady, Sadasivan // Chaos;Dec97, Vol. 7 Issue 4, p777 

    Presents highly detailed experimental evidence for the chaotic dynamics of sea clutter. Backscattered returns from a patch of sea surface illuminated by a transmitted radar signal; Characterization of sea clutter; Sea clutter at low grazing angles; Criteria for assessing the chaotic dynamics of...

  • Pathological tremors: Deterministic chaos or nonlinear stochastic oscillators? Timmer, Jens; Ha¨ußler, Siegfried; Lauk, Michael; Lu¨cking, Carl // AIP Conference Proceedings;2000, Vol. 502 Issue 1, p197 

    Pathological tremors exhibit a nonlinear oscillation that is not strictly periodic. We investigate whether the deviation from periodicity is due to nonlinear deterministic chaotic dynamics or due to nonlinear stochastic dynamics. To do so, we apply methods from linear and nonlinear time series...

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of THE LIBRARY OF VIRGINIA

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics