TITLE

Agent-based simulation for weekend-extension strategies to mitigate influenza outbreaks

AUTHOR(S)
Liang Mao
PUB. DATE
January 2011
SOURCE
BMC Public Health;2011, Vol. 11 Issue 1, p522
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
Background: Non-pharmaceutical strategies are vital in curtailing impacts of influenza and have been intensively studied in public health. However, few strategies have explicitly utilized the weekend effect, which has been widely reported to be capable of reducing influenza infections. This study aims to explore six weekend-extension strategies against seasonal and pandemic flu outbreaks. Methods: The weekend-extension strategies were designed to extend regular two-day weekend by one, two and three days, respectively, and in combination with either a continuous or discontinuous pattern. Their effectiveness was evaluated using an established agent-based spatially explicit simulation model in the urbanized area of Buffalo, NY, US. Results: If the extensions last more than two days, the weekend-extension strategies can remarkably reduce the overall disease attack rate of seasonal flu. Particularly, a three-day continuous extension is sufficient to suppress the epidemic and confine the spread of disease. For the pandemic flu, the weekend-extension strategies only produce a few mitigation effects until the extensions exceed three days. Sensitivity analysis indicated that a compliance level above 75% is necessary for the weekend-extension strategies to take effects. Conclusion: This research is the first attempt to incorporate the weekend effect into influenza mitigation strategies. The results suggest that appropriate extensions of the regular two-day weekend can be a potential measure to fight against influenza outbreaks, while minimizing interruptions on normal rhythms of socio-economy. The concept of weekend extension would be particularly useful if there were a lack of vaccine stockpiles, e.g., in countries with limited health resources, or in the case of unknown emerging infectious diseases.
ACCESSION #
63971783

 

Related Articles

  • Oseltamivir for treatment and prevention of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 virus infection in households, Milwaukee, 2009. Goldstein, Edward; Cowling, Benjamin J.; O'Hagan, Justin J.; Danon, Leon; Fang, Vicky J.; Hagy, Angela; Miller, Joel C.; Reshef, David; Robins, James; Biedrzycki, Paul; Lipsitch, Marc // BMC Infectious Diseases;2010, Vol. 10 Issue 1, p211 

    Background: During an influenza pandemic, a substantial proportion of transmission is thought to occur in households. We used data on influenza progression in individuals and their contacts collected by the City of Milwaukee Health Department (MHD) to study the transmission of pandemic influenza...

  • Predictions by early indicators of the time and height of the peaks of yearly influenza outbreaks in Sweden. Andersson, Eva; K�hlmann-Berenzon, Sharon; Linde, Annika; Schi�ler, Linus; Rubinova, Sandra; Fris�n, Marianne // Scandinavian Journal of Public Health;Oct2008, Vol. 36 Issue 6, p12 

    Aims: Methods for prediction of the peak of the influenza from early observations are suggested. These predictions can be used for planning purposes. Methods: In this study, new robust methods are described and applied to weekly Swedish data on influenza-like illness (ILI) and weekly laboratory...

  • Avian Flu: Should You Fear the Chicken? McEvoy, Mike // Fire Engineering;Dec2007, Vol. 160 Issue 12, p101 

    The article reports on the threat of an influenza pandemic and the control measures taken to prevent one. Flu is a respiratory infection transmitted by contact with respiratory secretions and is marked by symptoms such as fever, chills, aches and headache. Influenza kills 36,000 persons yearly...

  • Rhinovirus Outbreaks in Long-Term Care Facilities, Ontario, Canada. Longtin, Jean; Marchand-Austin, Alex; Winter, Anne-Luise; Patel, Samir; Eshaghi, Alireza; Jamieson, Frances; Low, Donald E.; Gubbay, Jonathan B. // Emerging Infectious Diseases;Sep2010, Vol. 16 Issue 9, p1463 

    Diagnostic difficulties may have led to underestimation of rhinovirus infections in long-term care facilities. Using surveillance data, we found that rhinovirus caused 59% (174/297) of respiratory outbreaks in these facilities during 6 months in 2009. Disease was sometimes severe. Molecular...

  • Antigenic variations of human influenza virus in Shiraz, Iran. Moattari, A.; Ashrafi, H.; Kadivar, M. R.; Kheiri, M. T.; Shahidi, M.; Arabpour, M.; Ghanbari, A. // Indian Journal of Medical Microbiology;Apr2010, Vol. 28 Issue 2, p114 

    Purpose: Influenza virus is a major cause of human respiratory infections and responsible for pandemics and regional outbreaks around the world. This investigation aims to determine the prevalent influenza genotypes during 2005-2007 outbreaks in Shiraz, the capital city of Fars province,...

  • Is public transport a risk factor for acute respiratory infection? Troko, Joy; Myles, Puja; Gibson, Jack; Hashim, Ahmed; Enstone, Joanne; Kingdon, Susan; Packham, Christopher; Amin, Shahid; Hayward, Andrew; Van-Tam, Jonathan Nguyen // BMC Infectious Diseases;2011, Vol. 11 Issue 1, p1 

    Background: The relationship between public transport use and acquisition of acute respiratory infection (ARI) is not well understood but potentially important during epidemics and pandemics. Methods: A case-control study performed during the 2008/09 influenza season. Cases (n = 72) consulted a...

  • Planificación de la preparatión para la influenza pandémica: esfuerzos regionales. Mujica, Oscar J.; Oliva, Otávio; dos Santos, Thais; Ehrenberg, John P. // Revista Panamericana de Salud Publica;Jun2008, Vol. 23 Issue 6, p428 

    The article provides information on the relevance of establishing a contingency plan in preparation for influenza pandemic in Latin America. It states that contingency planning is indeed a necessity in the effort of preventing the threat of influenza. It offers updates on the development of the...

  • University life and pandemic influenza: Attitudes and intended behaviour of staff and students towards pandemic (H1N1) 2009. Van, Debbie; McLaws, Mary-Louise; Crimmins, Jacinta; MacIntyre, C. Raina; Seale, Holly // BMC Public Health;2010, Vol. 10, p130 

    Background: In a pandemic young adults are more likely to be infected, increasing the potential for Universities to be explosive disease outbreak centres. Outbreak management is essential to reduce the impact in both the institution and the surrounding community. Through the use of an online...

  • Influenza pandemic: perception of risk and individual precautions in a general population. Cross sectional study. Kristiansen, Ivar S.; Halvorsen, Peder A.; Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte // BMC Public Health;2007, Vol. 7, p48 

    Background: An influenza pandemic may have considerable impact on health and societal functioning. The aim of this study was to explore people's reflections on the consequences of a pandemic. Methods: Cross-sectional web-based survey of 1,168 Norwegians aged 16-82 years. The main outcome...

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of VIRGINIA BEACH PUBLIC LIBRARY AND SYSTEM

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics