TITLE

Estimation of predictive hydrological uncertainty using quantile regression: examples from the National Flood Forecasting System (England and Wales)

AUTHOR(S)
Weerts, A. H.; Winsemius, H. C.; Verkade, J. S.
PUB. DATE
January 2011
SOURCE
Hydrology & Earth System Sciences;2011, Vol. 15 Issue 1, p255
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
In this paper, a technique is presented for assessing the predictive uncertainty of rainfall-runoff and hydraulic forecasts. The technique conditions forecast uncertainty on the forecasted value itself, based on retrospective Quantile Regression of hindcasted water level forecasts and forecast errors. To test the robustness of the method, a number of retrospective forecasts for different catchments across England and Wales having different size and hydrological characteristics have been used to derive in a probabilistic sense the relation between simulated values of water levels and matching errors. From this study, we can conclude that using Quantile Regression for estimating forecast errors conditional on the forecasted water levels provides a relatively simple, efficient and robust means for estimation of predictive uncertainty.
ACCESSION #
63224576

 

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