TITLE

Predicting AH1N1 2009 influenza epidemic in Southeast Europe

AUTHOR(S)
Smoljanović, Mladen; Smoljanović, Ankica; Mlikotić, Marijana
PUB. DATE
April 2011
SOURCE
Croatian Medical Journal;Apr2011, Vol. 52 Issue 2, p115
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
Aim: To use the data on the AH1N1 2009 influenza epidemic in the Southern hemisphere countries to predict the course and size of the upcoming influenza epidemic in South-Eastern Europe (SEE) countries and other regions of the World with temperate climate. Method: We used a comparative epidemiological method to evaluate accessible electronic data on laboratory-confirmed deaths from AH1N1 2009 influenza in the seasons 2009/2010 and 2010/2011. The studied SEE countries were Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Hungary, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia, and Slovenia, while Southern hemisphere countries were Argentina, Australia, Chile, New Zealand, Paraguay, Uruguay, and South Africa. Results: In influenza season 2009/2010, Southern hemisphere countries with temperate climate reported 1187 laboratory confirmed influenza AH1N1 2009 deaths (mortality rate 0.84/100 000; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.50- 1.24). SEE countries with similar climatic conditions reported 659 deaths and similar mortality rates (0.86/100 000, 95% CI, 0.83-1.10). In the whole Europe without the Commonwealth of Independent States countries (CIS, former Soviet Union), there were 3213 deaths (0.60/100 000; 95% CI, 0.65-0.93). In 2010/2011, Southern hemisphere countries reported 94 laboratory-confirmed deaths (mortality rate 0.07/100 000; 95% CI, 0.02-0.28) or only 7.9% of the previous season. SEE countries by the end of the 11th epidemiological week of 2010/2011 season reported 489 laboratory- confirmed deaths, with a mortality rate of 0.64/100 000 (95% CI, 0.26-0.96) or 74.2% of the previous season, which was significantly higher than in the Southern hemisphere countries (χ2 1 = 609.1, P < 0.001). In Europe without CIS countries, there were 1836 deaths, with a mortality rate of 0.34/100 000 (χ2 = 153.3, P < 0.001 vs SEE countries). Conclusion: In the 2009/2010 season, SEE countries and Southern hemisphere countries had similar influenza AH1N1 2009 mortality rates. In the 2010/2011 season, the forecast of 10% increase in total mortality in SEE countries and Europe compared with the 2009/2010 season was significantly exceeded, while the expected impact of type specific vaccines against influenza AH1N1 2009 was not achieved. Consumption of epidemic potential has greater importance for the prognosis of the course and size of influenza epidemic than the degree of vaccine immunity.
ACCESSION #
60819682

 

Related Articles

  • Emergency plans for pandemic get live test.  // Hospital Home Health;Jun2009, Vol. 26 Issue 6, p64 

    No abstract available.

  • (SWINE FLU) Everything Seniors Need to Know About the Flu but Were Afraid to Ask.  // Aging News Alert;10/2/2009, p8 

    A webcast featuring the latest information about swine flu and the new Influenza A (H1N1) virus conducted by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) is discussed.

  • Flu outbreaks.  // GP: General Practitioner;2/26/2010, p10 

    The article focuses on a report, according to which, low atmospheric humidity in cold weather could help in understanding why flu outbreaks occur in winter.

  • HIV clinicians and patients should prepare now for fall pandemic flu.  // AIDS Alert;Jun2009, Vol. 24 Issue 6, p61 

    No abstract available.

  • New gown policy gains traction in pandemic panic. Frederick, Eric L. // American Laundry News (Crain Communications Inc. (MI));Jan2010, Vol. 36 Issue 1, p4 

    The article presents the author's comments on what to do in case of the outbreak of H1N1 influenza.

  • UIL schedules altered due to swine flu.  // Twin Cities News (Munday, TX);4/30/2009, Vol. 27 Issue 18, p1 

    The article reports that the University Interscholastic League (UIL) has altered its schedule of events including UIL Academic State Meet, Texas State Wind Ensemible Festival and Regional Track Meets due to the outbreak of the swine flu in Texas.

  • H1N1 Flu Linked to Surge in Pneumonia Complication.  // Tennessee Tribune;11/4/2010, Vol. 21 Issue 44, p11B 

    The article presents information on a study by a research team headed by researcher Dr. Krow Ampofo, at Primary Children's Medical Center in Salt Lake City, Utah, on complications related to H1N1 influenza pandemic, according to which the pandemic resulted in increased cases of empyema in children.

  • CDC: Number of new cases of influenza A (H1N1) decreasing.  // Infectious Disease News;Dec2009, Vol. 22 Issue 12, p17 

    The article reports on the decreasing number of new cases of influenza A (H1N1) in the U.S. as of December 2009, according to data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

  • Dioceses taking action to combat the spread of swine flu. Norton, John // Our Sunday Visitor;11/8/2009, Vol. 98 Issue 28, p2 

    The article discusses the efforts of dioceses to address the spread of the H1N1 influenza.

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of VIRGINIA BEACH PUBLIC LIBRARY AND SYSTEM

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics