The state-of-the-art in modelling anticipatory economic behavior of complex production processes

Fogelholm, John
May 2000
AIP Conference Proceedings;2000, Vol. 517 Issue 1, p194
Academic Journal
The most important aspect of any industrial application of models has to be considered to consist of its ability to predict as accurately as possible the resource or economic behavior of the process under investigation (Fogelholm, 1998 p.1). This means that the anticipatory aspect of its actual use represents the main yardstick of its concrete usefulness. Contemplating the actual models in industrial use until now, one can discern an evident increase in the accuracy of the anticipatory information supplied by the models. But as the production processes to be modelled have increased even more in technical complexity, the anticipatory capacity of models has not been able to keep pace with the technical aspect of the processes under scrutiny. In most cases, particularly those involving the economic aspect, as exemplified by the costing or other economy-capturing aspect requirements of the model, the final result has mostly been a fairly low-variety model of the actual process. The aim of this paper is to present an overview of recent developments in this management area, and particularly to scrutinize the gap between the state-of-the art in the already traditional, and recent new theory and its practical applications. Also, the present computer applications of these models will be dealt with. The paper will basically focus on the variety-capturing capabilities of the theories developed, and on the corresponding systems implemented. © 2000 American Institute of Physics.


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