Modelling the effect of seasonal influenza vaccination on the risk of pandemic influenza infection

Mercer, Geoffry N.; Barry, Steven I.; Kelly, Heath
January 2011
BMC Public Health;2011 Supplement 1, Vol. 11 Issue Suppl 1, p1
Academic Journal
Background: Recent studies have suggested that vaccination with seasonal influenza vaccine resulted in an apparent higher risk of infection with pandemic influenza H1N1 2009. A simple mathematical model incorporating strain competition and a hypothesised temporary strain-transcending immunity is constructed to investigate this observation. The model assumes that seasonal vaccine has no effect on the risk of infection with pandemic influenza. Results: Results of the model over a range of reproduction numbers and effective vaccination coverage confirm this apparent increased risk in the Northern, but not the Southern, hemisphere. This is due to unvaccinated individuals being more likely to be infected with seasonal influenza (if it is circulating) and developing hypothesised temporary immunity to the pandemic strain. Because vaccinated individuals are less likely to have been infected with seasonal influenza, they are less likely to have developed the hypothesised temporary immunity and are therefore more likely to be infected with pandemic influenza. If the reproduction number for pandemic influenza is increased, as it is for children, an increase in the apparent risk of seasonal vaccination is observed. The maximum apparent risk effect is found when seasonal vaccination coverage is in the range 20-40%. Conclusions: Only when pandemic influenza is recently preceded by seasonal influenza circulation is there a modelled increased risk of pandemic influenza infection associated with prior receipt of seasonal vaccine.


Related Articles

  • Beginning September 1st Harris Teeter Will Offer Seasonal Flu Shot Clinics in ALL 199 Store Locations.  // Tennessee Tribune;9/9/2010, Vol. 21 Issue 36, p4B 

    The article reports on the availability of seasonal influenza vaccines at Harris Teeter stores in Charlotte, North Carolina.

  • Spreading the word about seasonal influenza.  // Bulletin of the World Health Organization;Apr2012, Vol. 90 Issue 4, p252 

    The article reports on seasonal influenza communication campaigns which are being conducted in 2012 in several countries across the globe, including Sierra Leone, Brazil and New Zealand. A discussion of the challenges that health professionals face when designing and implementing influenza...

  • The flu shot remains a vital healthcare tool. Sanders, Lori // Clinical Advisor;Dec2015, Vol. 18 Issue 12, p91 

    No abstract available.

  • Practice nurses lead the way in uptake of flu vaccination.  // Practice Nursing;Nov2014, Vol. 25 Issue 11, p527 

    The article presents the findings of a survey developed by George Kassainos, president of the British Global and Travel Health Association, on views of health professionals about the flu vaccine and reasons for not getting it. Results show that practice nurses are the most committed to get the...

  • Early Estimates of Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness -- United States, January 2015. Flannery, Brendan; Clippard, Jessie; Zimmerman, Richard K.; Nowalk, Mary Patricia; Jackson, Michael L.; Jackson, Lisa A.; Monto, Arnold S.; Petrie, Joshua G.; McLean, Huong Q.; Belongia, Edward A.; Gaglani, Manjusha; Berman, LaShondra; Foust, Angie; Sessions, Wendy; Thaker, Swathi N.; Spencer, Sarah; Fry, Alicia M. // MMWR: Morbidity & Mortality Weekly Report;1/16/2015, Vol. 64 Issue 1, p10 

    The article presents an early estimate of seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness for prevention of influenza virus infection associated with acute respiratory illness (ARI) in the U.S. Of the more than two thousand children and adults with ARI enrolled at the study sites, more than forty...

  • Mutant menace.  // Down to Earth;3/16/2015, Vol. 23 Issue 21, p31 

    The article focuses on the unpredictable nature of influenza viruses, making them difficult to prevent and manage. Topics discussed include the deterioration of the efficacy of seasonal influenza vaccines to protect the public from avian or swine influenza viruses, the need to raise awareness on...

  • Flu vaccination found to be safe for children.  // Practice Nurse;1/21/2011, Vol. 41 Issue 1, p6 

    The article highlights the findings of an analysis on the safety of flu vaccination in children in Great Britain.

  • Reasons for not having received influenza vaccination and its predictors in Canadians. Yue Chen; Wu, Jun; Qi-long Yi; Laroche, Julie; Wong, Thomas // Vaccine: Development & Therapy;2012, Vol. 2, p23 

    Background: Influenza vaccination is the most effective way to prevent influenza. However, only about one-third of Canadians receive an annual seasonal influenza vaccination. Methods: The reasons for not having received influenza vaccination were examined among 131,061 Canadians $ 12 years of...

  • A Primer on Strategies for Prevention and Control of Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza. Santiba&nmacr;ez, Scott; Fiore, Anthony E.; Merlin, Toby L.; Redd, Stephen // American Journal of Public Health;Oct2009 Supplement, Vol. 99 Issue S2, pS216 

    The United States has made considerable progress in pandemic preparedness. Limited attention, however, has been given to the challenges faced by populations that will be at increased risk of the consequences of the pandemic, including challenges caused by societal, economic, and health-related...


Read the Article


Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics