Reactive strategies for containing developing outbreaks of pandemic influenza

Andradóttir, Sigrún; Wenchi Chiu; Goldsman, David; Mi Lim Lee; Kwok-Leung Tsui; Sander, Beate; Fisman, David N.; Nizam, Azhar
January 2011
BMC Public Health;2011 Supplement 1, Vol. 11 Issue Suppl 1, p1
Academic Journal
Background: In 2009 and the early part of 2010, the northern hemisphere had to cope with the first waves of the new influenza A (H1N1) pandemic. Despite high-profile vaccination campaigns in many countries, delays in administration of vaccination programs were common, and high vaccination coverage levels were not achieved. This experience suggests the need to explore the epidemiological and economic effectiveness of additional, reactive strategies for combating pandemic influenza. Methods: We use a stochastic model of pandemic influenza to investigate realistic strategies that can be used in reaction to developing outbreaks. The model is calibrated to documented illness attack rates and basic reproductive number (R0) estimates, and constructed to represent a typical mid-sized North American city. Results: Our model predicts an average illness attack rate of 34.1% in the absence of intervention, with total costs associated with morbidity and mortality of US$81 million for such a city. Attack rates and economic costs can be reduced to 5.4% and US$37 million, respectively, when low-coverage reactive vaccination and limited antiviral use are combined with practical, minimally disruptive social distancing strategies, including short-term, as-needed closure of individual schools, even when vaccine supply-chain-related delays occur. Results improve with increasing vaccination coverage and higher vaccine efficacy. Conclusions: Such combination strategies can be substantially more effective than vaccination alone from epidemiological and economic standpoints, and warrant strong consideration by public health authorities when reacting to future outbreaks of pandemic influenza.


Related Articles

  • Ten influenza seasons in France: distribution and timing of influenza A and B circulation, 2003-2013. Mosnier, Anne; Caini, Saverio; Daviaud, Isabelle; Bensoussan, Jean-Louis; Stoll-Keller, Françoise; Tan Tai Bui; Lina, Bruno; Van der Werf, Sylvie; Cohen, Jean Marie // BMC Infectious Diseases;Aug2015, Vol. 15 Issue 1, p1 

    Background: Describing the circulation of influenza viruses and the characteristics of seasonal epidemics remains an essential tool to optimize the strategies of influenza prevention and control. Special attention has been recently paid to influenza B in the context of the availability of a...

  • Confronting Potential Influenza A (H5N1) Pandemic with Better Vaccines. Haque, Azizul; Hober, Didier; Kasper, Lloyd H. // Emerging Infectious Diseases;Oct2007, Vol. 13 Issue 10, p1512 

    Influenza A (H5N1) viruses are strong candidates for causing the next influenza pandemic if they acquire the ability for efficient human-to-human transmission. A major public health goal is to make efficacious vaccines against these viruses by using novel approaches, including cell-culture...

  • Battle of the bug. Barnes, Celia // Warsaw Business Journal;11/5/2001, Vol. 7 Issue 45, p2 

    Focuses on the popularity of annual flu vaccination in Poland. Assessment of lawyer Izabella on the concern of the government to public health; Participation of employers on the influenza vaccination program; Estimation number of people yearly affected by influenza; Factors contributing to...

  • Public Health and the Politics of School Immunization Requirements. Salmon, Daniel A.; Sapsin, Jason W.; Teret, Stephen; Jacobs, Richard F.; Thompson, Joseph W.; Ryan, Kevin; Halsey, Neal A. // American Journal of Public Health;May2005, Vol. 95 Issue 5, p778 

    Compulsory vaccination has contributed to the enormous success of US immunization programs. Movements to introduce broad "philosophical/personal beliefs" exemptions administered without adequate public health oversight threaten this success. Health professionals and child welfare advocates must...

  • Path to Polio Eradication in India: A Major Milestone. John, T Jacob; Vashishtha, Vipin M // Indian Pediatrics;Feb2012, Vol. 49 Issue 2, p95 

    The article deals with the success of India in eradicating wild polioviruses (WPVs) during the 2010-11 period. According to a study of the National Polio Surveillance Project, the prevalence of WPV-1 and WPV-3 in the high-risk districts of western Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in 2010 was 98% and 77%,...

  • Are you girding for pre-event smallpox immunization? Hitchens, Kathy // Drug Topics;02/03/2003, Vol. 147 Issue 3, p20 

    Focuses on the mandatory smallpox vaccination program for the public in the U.S. Concerns of public officers and medical personnel over the safety of the smallpox immunization; Advantages of the mass vaccination plan before the bioterrorism attack; Factors contributing to the development of...

  • Evaluation of the measles-rubella mass vaccination campaign in the population covered by Tehran University of Medical Sciences. Majdzadeh, R.; Moradi, A.; Zeraati, H.; Sepanlou, S. Ghajarieh; Zamani, G.; Zonobi, V. // Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal;jul/aug2008, Vol. 14 Issue 4, p810 

    We evaluated the measles-rubella mass vaccination campaign in the Islamic Republic of Iran in December 2003. Vaccination coverage, community awareness of the campaign and the quality of vaccination services were assessed in the population covered by Tehran University of Medical Sciences. At the...

  • Effects of Vaccine Program against Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1) Virus, United States, 2009-2010. Borse, Rebekah H.; Shrestha, Sundar S.; Fiore, Anthony E.; Atkins, Charisma Y.; Singleton, James A.; Furlow, Carolyn; Meltzer, Martin I. // Emerging Infectious Diseases;Mar2013, Vol. 19 Issue 3, p439 

    In April 2009, the United States began a response to the emergence of a pandemic influenza virus strain: A(H1N1) pdm09. Vaccination began in October 2009. By using US surveillance data (April 12, 2009-April 10, 2010) and vaccine coverage estimates (October 3, 2009-April 18, 2010), we estimated...

  • LA FUNCIÓN DE LA PREVENCIÓN EN EL ÁMBITO DE LA SALUD Y LA SALUD PÚBLICA: RETOS PARA EL FUTURO. de Macedo, Carlyle Guerra // Vacunas: Prevención de enfermedades y protección de la salud;2004, p353 

    The article analyzes the significance of prevention in public health. There is an inextricable relationship between public health and prevention, more specifically between vaccines and prevention. Both public health and prevention are two areas of intervention that are related with individuals'...


Read the Article


Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics