Some Thoughts on the Value of Forecasting

Connelly, Thomas J.
April 1996
Journal of Financial Planning;Apr96, Vol. 9 Issue 2, p24
Academic Journal
This article highlights the importance of forecasting for financial planners. Planning ahead means making forecasts, and all financial require the planners to forecast or make assumptions about what values expect for various investment market and macroeconomic variables. Portfolio management, based on top down analysis, typically requires estimates for a wide range of macroeconomic variables, as does a strategy based on timing of business cycles. Bottom-up analysis and passive portfolio management have more subdued forecasting needs. Ultimately, all investment strategies depend, either implicitly or explicitly, on forecasts about the future investment environment. The forecasting needs of portfolio managers are largely dependent on their philosophy and style of management. To meet investor objectives at acceptable levels of risk and maintain a competitive advantage, portfolio managers and financial planners require consistently accurate and timely assessments of future economic activity.


Related Articles

  • MULTI-MANAGER VIEW. Smith, Ian // Money Marketing;7/14/2005, p20 

    Presents the author's view on the use of multi-manager funds. Assertion that multi-manager is a means by which independent financial advisors reduce their compliance risk; Statement that multi-manager offering takes away the asset allocation decision; Reference to the investment process as one...

  • HNWs shifting away from advisers. Greenwood, John // Money Marketing;9/25/2003, p8 

    Reports on the findings of a survey on the behavior of high-net-worth investors in Great Britain. Use of independent financial advisers; Factors influencing the investors to manage their own portfolios.

  • Targeting the small investor. Ram, R. Sree // Money Today; 

    The article focuses on small domestic brokerages in India that offer portfolio management services (PMS) to small investors or those with a minimum investible amount of Rx 5 lakh. PMS deal with handling of financial assets, which may be discretionary, where the fund manager does the buying and...

  • How can I be sure that my advisor isn't a Ponzi? Strand, Bill // Best Life;Apr2009, Vol. 6 Issue 3, p18 

    The article offers tips for ensuring that a financial adviser is not involved in fraudulent schemes. An advisor should have worked on transactions executed by well-known custodians, such as Fidelity, Schwab, or TD Ameritrade. An investor should determine who audits an investment advisor's...

  • Be careful what you wish for. Raubenheimer, Heidi // Finweek;3/19/2009, Special section p17 

    The article offers information on the vital role played by professional fund managers in effectively managing assets and investments in South Africa. These are the people who are both concerned with active return generation. Moreover, they also determine the fund objectives using asset/liability...

  • Financial Advisors.  // Fairfield County Business Journal;11/14/2005, Vol. 44 Issue 46, Special section p5 

    The article lists the leading financial advisors in Connecticut including the Business and Financial Services Inc., the Asset Management Group Inc., the Emerald Planning Services Inc., the Hudson Heritage Capital Management Inc. and the New England Wealth Strategies.

  • Back to old times? Loria, Keith // Westchester County Business Journal;9/5/2005, Vol. 44 Issue 36, p25 

    The article focuses on the possible increase in the number of financial advisers in the U.S. This increase will be due to the increasing demand for services of financial advisers in managing money. Today, more financial advisers use fee-based approach. They can also exploit the market when it is...

  • Bubble Trouble. Jahnke, William // Journal of Financial Planning;Aug2002, Vol. 15 Issue 8, p38 

    This article discusses why there is a need to reevaluate assumptions made by financial planners on current asset allocation. Most financial advisors engage in active stock selection and reject the idea of active asset allocation. This specious argument supporting active stock selection and...

  • Advisers surrender reins to wraps. Keavney, Robert // Money Management;3/8/2007, Vol. 21 Issue 8, p26 

    The article explores how platforms have significantly influenced the fund management sector in Australia. An overview of the discussion with a fund manager on the substantial benefit of the clients is offered. It is asserted that dealers should concentrate on the right to add investments to the...


Read the Article


Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics