Is the Recent Rise in Type 2 Diabetes Incidence From 1984 to 2007 Explained by the Trend in Increasing BMI?

Hardoon, Sarah L.; Morris, Richard W.; Thomas, Mary C.; Wannamethee, S. Goya; Lennon, Lucy T.; Whincup, Peter H.
July 2010
Diabetes Care;Jul2010, Vol. 33 Issue 7, p1494
Academic Journal
OBJECTIVE -- To estimate the extent to which increasing BMI may explain the rise in type 2 diabetes incidence in British men from 1984 to 2007. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS -- A representative cohort ratio of 6,460 British men was followed-up for type 2 diabetes incidence between 1984 (aged 45-65 years) and 2007 (aged 67-89 years). BMI was ascertained at regular intervals before and during the follow-up. RESULTS -- Between 1984-1992 and 1999-2007, the age-adjusted hazard of type 2 diabetes more than doubled (hazard ratio 2.33 [95% CI 1.75-3.10]). Mean BMI rose by 1.42 kg/m² (95% CI 1.10-1.74) between 1984 and 1999; this could explain 26% (95% CI 17-38) of the type 2 diabetes increase. CONCLUSIONS -- An appreciable portion of the rise in type 2 diabetes can be attributed to BMI changes. A substantial portion remains unexplained, possibly associated with other determinants such as physical activity. This merits further research.


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