Secular Price Change in Historical Perspective

February 1973
Journal of Money, Credit & Banking (Ohio State University Press);Feb73 Part 2, Vol. 5 Issue 1, p243
Academic Journal
The article presents an historical examination of secular price change. The author presents a provisional model that can be tested on historical data. The article identifies that the critical variable in secular price movements is the ratio of money stock to real output. The author notes the need for data related to money supply, real output, commodity prices, money wages, and interest rates. The model is tested in four periods over two and a half millenia, starting with antiquity through the 4th century of the Christian era; from the fifth century through the fifteenth century; from the sixteenth century through the Naploeonic Wars; and from the nineteenth century through the early 1930s. Ten conclusions are drawn from the historical evidence.


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