TITLE

The impact of demographic and risk factor changes on coronary heart disease deaths in Beijing, 1999-2010

AUTHOR(S)
Jun Cheng; Dong Zhao; Zhechun Zeng; Critchley, Julia Alison; Jing Liu; Wei Wang; Jiayi Sun; Capewell, Simon
PUB. DATE
January 2009
SOURCE
BMC Public Health;2009, Vol. 9, p30
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
Background: Recent, dramatic increases in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in China can be mostly explained by adverse changes in major cardiovascular risk factors. Our study aimed to assess the potential impact of subsequent changes in risk factors and population ageing on CHD deaths in Beijing between 1999 and 2010. Methods: The previously validated IMPACT model was used to estimate the CHD deaths expected in 2010, with treatment uptakes being held constant at levels measured in 1999, comparing three scenarios: a) taking into account the ageing of the population but assuming no further changes in major risk factor levels from 1999 or, b) if recent risk factor trends continued until 2010 or, c) if there was a 0.5% annual reduction in each risk factor. Results: Population ageing alone would result in approximately 1990 additional deaths in 2010 compared with 1999, representing an increase of 27%. Continuation of current risk factor trends would result in approximately 3,015 extra deaths in 2010, [a 40% increase]; three quarters of this increase would be attributable to rises in total cholesterol levels. Thus, demographic changes and worsening risk factors would together result in a 67% increase in CHD deaths. Conversely, assumed 0.5% annual reductions in risk factors (a mean population level decline of 0.3 mmol/L for total cholesterol in both genders, and smoking prevalence declining by 3.0% for men and 4.1% for women, body mass index by 1.3 kg/m² for men and 1.4 kg/m² for women, diabetes prevalence by 0.4% in both genders, and diastolic blood pressure by 4.7 mmHg for men and 4.4 mmHg for women) would result in some 3,730 fewer deaths, representing a 23% decrease overall. These findings remained consistent in sensitivity analyses. Conclusion: CHD death rates are continuing to rise in Beijing. This reflects worsening risk factor levels, compounded by demographic trends. However, the adverse impact of population ageing on CHD burden could be completely offset by eminently feasible improvements in diet and smoking.
ACCESSION #
51511495

 

Related Articles

  • Place, time and certified cause of death in people who die after hospital admission for myocardial infarction or stroke. Goldacre, Michael J.; Roberts, Stephen E.; Griffith, Myfanwy // European Journal of Public Health;Dec2004, Vol. 14 Issue 4, p338 

    Background: Two areas of uncertainty about routine statistics for mortality after hospital admission for myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke are i) whether most deaths occur in the admission episode itself rather than after discharge, and ii) whether most deaths are certified on death...

  • Trends in Ischemic Heart Disease Mortality in Italy, 1968-78. La Vecchia, Carlo; Decarli, Adriano // American Journal of Public Health;Apr1986, Vol. 76 Issue 4, p454 

    Abstract: In Italy during the period 1968-78, female heart disease mortality decreased in all age groups up to age 79, with an average annual rate of decline in the 35-74 age-standardized rate of over 0.7 per ¢. In males, age-specific death rates in some age groups were stable or increased...

  • SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF CARDIOVASCULAR MORTALITY IN PORTUGAL, 1992-2000. Almeida, S.; Pina, M.; Lopes, C. // Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health;Aug2004 Supplement 1, Vol. 58, pA4 

    This article describes study which was aimed at analyzing the geographical distribution of stroke and coronary heart disease mortality in Portugal, on a municipality level, from 1992 to 2000. Mortality data were obtained from the National Mortality Database, aggregated by municipality, with...

  • Comparing primary prevention with secondary prevention to explain decreasing Coronary Heart Disease death rates in Ireland, 1985-2000. Kabir, Zubair; Bennett, Kathleen; Shelley, Emer; Unal, Belgin; Critchley, Julia A.; Capewell, Simon // BMC Public Health;2007, Vol. 7, p1 

    Background: To investigate whether primary prevention might be more favourable than secondary prevention (risk factor reduction in patients with coronary heart disease(CHD)). Methods: The cell-based IMPACT CHD mortality model was used to integrate data for Ireland describing CHD patient numbers,...

  • Myocardial infarction rates are higher on weekends than on weekdays in middle aged French men. MARQUES-VIDAL, PEDRO; ARVEILER, DOMINIQUE; AMOUYEL, PHILIPPE; DUCIMETIÈRE, PIERRE; FERRIÈRES, JEAN // Heart;Sep2001, Vol. 86 Issue 3, p341 

    The article discusses a study which investigated the rates of myocardial infarction (MI) on weekends and weekdays in middle aged men in France. The investigators used several data sources including the French National Mortality Statistics. It was found that MI incidence and mortality were higher...

  • Study of Anatomical Variation in Origin of Coronary Arteries. Mutyal, Shubhangi Ramesh; Mandke, Nutan Dilip; Ambiye, Medha Vijay // International Journal of Biological & Medical Research;Apr2014, Vol. 5 Issue 1, p3802 

    Introduction: Beneficial therapeutic options are increasingly available for coronary arterial disease. To take full advantage of these options, those performing the interventions require a thorough knowledge of the normal arrangement, and likely anatomic variations, of the coronary arterial...

  • Actividad física y salud percibida en pacientes con enfermedad coronaria. Stein, A. C.; Molinero, O.; Salguero, A.; Corrêa, M. C. R.; Márquez, S. // Cuadernos de Psicología del Deporte;2014, Vol. 14 Issue 1, p109 

    Coronary artery disease is one of the main causes of morbidity and mortality in the world and associates with important emotional and social consequences. Physical activity seems to slow down the start and the progression of the cardiovascular illnesses but also presents benfits on psychosocial...

  • THE HAPPY TOWN WHERE HEARTS STAY HEALTHY. Massie, Robert K. // Saturday Evening Post;10/10/1964, Vol. 237 Issue 35, p76 

    The article presents a study on myocardial infraction that was conducted in Roseto, Pennsylvania, to find out the causes of low incidence of heart attack among the people of the town. The study was conducted by Stewart Wolf, professor of medicine at the University of Oklahoma. The first...

  • Quality of Death Statistics. Newman, David M. // American Journal of Public Health;Sep87, Vol. 77 Issue 9, p1230 

    Two letters to the editor are presented in response to articles "The effect of Physician Terminology Preference on Coronary Heath Disease Mortality: An artifact uncovered by the 9th Revision ICD," by P. D. Sorlie and "The Quality of Cause of Death Statistics," by M. G, Sirken in the February...

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of VIRGINIA BEACH PUBLIC LIBRARY AND SYSTEM

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics