TITLE

Effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on dengue epidemics in Thailand, 1996-2005

AUTHOR(S)
Tipayamongkholgul, Mathuros; Chi-Tai Fang; Klinchan, Suratsawadee; Chung-Ming Liu; Chwan-Chuen King
PUB. DATE
January 2009
SOURCE
BMC Public Health;2009, Vol. 9, p422
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
Background: Despite intensive vector control efforts, dengue epidemics continue to occur throughout Southeast Asia in multi-annual cycles. Weather is considered an important factor in these cycles, but the extent to which the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a driving force behind dengue epidemics remains unclear. Methods: We examined the temporal relationship between El Niño and the occurrence of dengue epidemics, and constructed Poisson autoregressive models for incidences of dengue cases. Global ENSO records, dengue surveillance data, and local meteorological data in two geographically diverse regions in Thailand (the tropical southern coastal region and the northern inland mountainous region) were analyzed. Results: The strength of El Niño was consistently a predictor for the occurrence of dengue epidemics throughout time lags from 1 to 11 months in the two selected regions of Thailand. Up to 22% (in 8 northern inland mountainous provinces) and 15% (in 5 southern tropical coastal provinces) of the variation in the monthly incidence of dengue cases were attributable to global ENSO cycles. Province-level predictive models were fitted using 1996-2004 data and validated with out-of-fit data from 2005. The multivariate ENSO index was an independent predictor in 10 of the 13 studied provinces. Conclusion: El Niño is one of the important driving forces for dengue epidemics across the geographically diverse regions of Thailand; however, spatial heterogeneity in the effect exists. The effects of El Niño should be taken into account in future epidemic forecasting for public health preparedness.
ACCESSION #
47323934

 

Related Articles

  • BROTE DE DENGUE AUTOCTONO EN EL AREA METROPOLITANA BUENOS AIRES EXPERIENCIA DEL HOSPITAL DE ENFERMEDADES INFECCIOSAS F. J. MUÑIZ. Seijo, Alfredo; Romer, Yamila; Espinosa, Manuel; Monroig, Jessica; Giamperetti, Sergio; Ameri, Diego; Antonelli, Leslie // Medicina (Buenos Aires);2009, Vol. 69 Issue 6, p593 

    As a consequence of the dengue epidemic in the Bolivian Republic and the northern provinces of Argentina, an outbreak of indigenous dengue occurred for the first time in the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area. Since January 2009 we assisted imported dengue cases coming from epidemic regions; later,...

  • El Niño-southern oscillation and cassava production in Tanzania and Brazil. Oluwole, O. // Climatic Change;Jul2015, Vol. 131 Issue 2, p273 

    Konzo epidemics occur during droughts in East, Central, and Southern Africa, where the population depends almost exclusively on poorly processed cassava. Warm phases of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal Oscillation (PDO) are associated with droughts in these areas of...

  • Resurgence of dengue fever in Puerto Rico worries experts. Eickhoff, Theodore C. // Infectious Disease News;Jan2008, Vol. 21 Issue 1, p1 

    The article reports on the concerns raised by health experts on the resurgence of dengue fever in Puerto Rico. Health experts warn that dengue fever outbreak in the country in 2007 could potentially escalate to a more significant public health problem. Public health officials claim that there is...

  • Experts worry dengue outbreak in Puerto Rico could escalate. Lewis, Jay // Infectious Disease News;Jan2008, Vol. 21 Issue 1, p28 

    The article reports on the concern raised health experts regarding the potential escalation of dengue fever outbreak in Puerto Rico. Public health officials have revealed that all four serotypes of dengue fever have been documented in the country since January 2007. The symptoms of dengue fever...

  • OUTBREAK NEWS.  // Weekly Epidemiological Record;4/23/2004, Vol. 79 Issue 17, p161 

    From 1 January to 4 April 2004, a total of 52 013 mainly hospitalized cases of dengue and 603 deaths have been registered with the Indonesian Ministry of Health. The overall case-fatality rate this year, particularly in Jakarta, has been lower than in previous years. Dengue occurs every year in...

  • Dengue fever, Indonesia -- update 1.  // Weekly Epidemiological Record;5/14/2004, Vol. 79 Issue 20, p193 

    Presents an update of the number of cases of dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever in Indonesia. Number of death caused by the disease; Detection of a lower fatality rate compared to previous years; Observation of the outbreak of the disease in all provinces.

  • Puerto Rico: dengue fever epidemic declared.  // Caribbean Health;Dec1998, Vol. 1 Issue 3, p7 

    The article reports on the epidemic outbreak of dengue fever in Puerto Rico. The disease has killed at least three people and infected thousands more in the island. According to the health officials, dengue has reached epidemic proportions and that the current outbreak threatens to break the...

  • The influence of geographic and climate factors on the timing of dengue epidemics in Per, 1994-2008. Chowell, Gerardo; Cazelles, Bernard; Broutin, Hélène; Munayco, Cesar V. // BMC Infectious Diseases;2011, Vol. 11 Issue 1, p164 

    Background: Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease that affects between 50 and 100 million people each year. Increasing our understanding of the heterogeneous transmission patterns of dengue at different spatial scales could have considerable public health value by guiding intervention...

  • Dengue Outbreak -- Federated States of Micronesia, 2012-2013. Taulung, Livinston A.; Masao, Carolee; Palik, Hibson; Samo, Marcus; Barrow, Lisa; Pretrick, Moses; Nilles, Eric J.; Kool, Jacob; Simmons, Russell; Moore, Frederick; Pyke, Alyssa; Taylor, Carmel; Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau; Sharp, Tyler M.; Tai-Ho Chen // MMWR: Morbidity & Mortality Weekly Report;7/19/2013, Vol. 62 Issue 28, p570 

    The article discusses a dengue outbreak in the Federated States of Micronesia from September 2012 to March 2013. It mentions the administration of rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) on individuals hospitalized for fever. The redirection of human and material resources from other important medical and...

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of VIRGINIA BEACH PUBLIC LIBRARY AND SYSTEM

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics