TITLE

FORECASTING NEW PRODUCT SALES FROM LIKELIHOOD OF PURCHASE RATINGS

AUTHOR(S)
Infosino, William J.
PUB. DATE
September 1986
SOURCE
Marketing Science;Fall86, Vol. 5 Issue 4, p372
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
This paper compares consumer likelihood of purchase ratings for a proposed new product to their actual purchase behavior after the product was introduced. The ratings were obtained from a mail survey a few weeks before the product was introduced. The analysis leads to a model for forecasting new product sales. The model is supported by both empirical evidence and a reasonable theoretical foundation. In addition to calibrating the relationship between questionnaire ratings and actual purchases, the empirical evidence demonstrates the significant effect of alternative promotion/distribution vehicles on new product sales. The model uses questionnaire data to extend the results of a limited market trial to alternative target markets, product specifications, and prices.
ACCESSION #
4478569

 

Related Articles

  • NEW PRODUCT ENTRIES AND PRODUCT CLASS DEMAND. Mason, Charlotte H. // Marketing Science;Winter90, Vol. 9 Issue 1, p58 

    Because new products are critical to success and survival, the evaluation of new product ideas receives much attention. In the early stages of product development, concept evaluation models are used to predict market share and/or sales of hypothetical product concepts. These models have focused...

  • Developing a realistic measure of share loss. Fox, Richard J.; Brittain, Bruce J. // Marketing News;9/13/1985, Vol. 19 Issue 19, p27 

    The article discusses how market researchers can accurately estimate the effect of unannounced product reformulation on market share. Consumers tend to detect the change and prefer the original product or consider the reformulation when a product is reformulated. Some companies decided to use a...

  • A Probability Model for Early Prediction of New Product Market Success. Barclay, William D. // Journal of Marketing;Jan1963, Vol. 27 Issue 1, p63 

    This article shows the application of a simple probability model to one aspect of the early prediction of new product success. The model is tested by comparing a long-run predicted proportion of Chicago families who would be expected to buy a particular new product during a bi-monthly period...

  • Evolutionary Model Building. Urban, Glen L.; Karash, Richard // Journal of Marketing Research (JMR);Feb1971, Vol. 8 Issue 1, p62 

    An evolutionary methodology is proposed to encourage successful implementation of management science models. An example is presented by a series of new product models.

  • A Methodology for Identifying Innovator Characteristics of New Brand Purchasers. DONNELLY JR., JAMES H.; IVANCEVICH, JOHN M. // Journal of Marketing Research (JMR);Aug1974, Vol. 11 Issue 3, p331 

    Based on the previous discussion, the objective of this article is to demonstrate a methodology for identifying innovator characteristics of new brand purchasers. One behavioral characteristic was selected for this study, social character, but nothing in the design limits it to the study of...

  • Predicting Behavior from Intention-to-Buy Measures: The Parametric Case. Bemmaor, Albert C. // Journal of Marketing Research (JMR);May95, Vol. 32 Issue 2, p176 

    The author develops a probabilistic model that converts stated purchase intents into purchase probabilities. The model allows heterogeneity between nonintenders and intenders with respect to their probability to switch to a new "true" purchase intent after the survey, thereby capturing the...

  • Marketing Mix Decisions for New Products. Kotler, Philip // Journal of Marketing Research (JMR);Feb1964, Vol. 1 Issue 1, p43 

    In evaluating a new product idea, it can be misleading to consider only one conception of the product's attributes and marketing program. Different conceptions of the marketing mix will yield different estimates of profit potential. The author shows how the "best" marketing mix can be found...

  • An Experiment in Brand Choice. Charlton, P.; Ehrenberg, A. S. C. // Journal of Marketing Research (JMR);May76, Vol. 13 Issue 2, p152 

    The experiment shows how effects of marketing action on the consumer can be investigated by use of small ad hoc consumer panels and door-to-door selling. The effects of price differentials, a promotion, advertising, an out-of-stock condition, the introduction of a new product, and certain weak...

  • DEVELOPMENT OF INNOVATION PRODUCTS BASED ON THE CONSUMERS' PREFERENCES. NEGANOVA, VALENTINA; NEGANOVA, IRINA // International Journal of Management Cases;Dec2011, Vol. 13 Issue 4, p261 

    The today's tendency to produce goods that are similar in terms of their quality, destined to satisfy the same customers' needs, have some unnecessary functions complicates consumers' choice, decreases their satisfaction. The aim of the paper is to investigate the Russian consumer preferences as...

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of VIRGINIA BEACH PUBLIC LIBRARY AND SYSTEM

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics