TITLE

EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF ADVERTISING MEDIA PLANS: A MODEL OF CONSUMER PURCHASE DYNAMICS USING SINGLE-SOURCE DATA

AUTHOR(S)
Pedrick, James H.; Zufryden, Fred S.
PUB. DATE
March 1991
SOURCE
Marketing Science;Spring91, Vol. 10 Issue 2, p111
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
We propose a model to analyze the impact of advertising media plans and point-of-purchase marketing variables on a brand's market performance. Our model integrates brand choice, purchase incidence, and exposure behavior within a nonstationary stochastic framework. Moreover, it considers various aspects of consumer heterogeneity including individual differences in loyalty levels, purchase rates, and exposure probabilities for a population of consumers. The integrated model provides a relationship of advertising exposures from media plans, and other marketing variables, to measures of a brand's performance that include market share, penetration and depth of repeat patterns over time. In this paper, we focus on a multi-brand model formulation and stress its application to the analysis of advertising media plans. Based on single-source UPC scanner panel data for a Frequently purchased product category, we provide an empirical test of the model. In this context, our analyses show that the model provides a good fit to the empirical data as well as accurate forecasts in hold-out predictive tests.
ACCESSION #
4476454

 

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