TITLE

MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION FOR AN INNOVATION DIFFUSION MODEL OF NEW PRODUCT ACCEPTANCE

AUTHOR(S)
Schmittlein, David C.; Mahajan, Vijay
PUB. DATE
January 1982
SOURCE
Marketing Science;Winter82, Vol. 1 Issue 1, p57
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
A maximum likelihood approach is proposed for estimating an innovation diffusion model of new product acceptance originally considered by Bass (1969). The suggested approach allows: (1) computation of approximate standard errors for the diffusion model parameters, and (2) determination of the required sample size for forecasting the adoption level to any desired degree of accuracy. Using histograms from eight different product renovations, the maximum likelihood estimates are shown to outperform estimates front a model calibrated using ordinary least squares, m terms of both goodness of fit measures and one-step ahead forecasts. However, these advantages are not obtained without cost. The coefficients of innovation and imitation are easily interpreted in terms of the expected adoption pattern, but individual adoption times must be assumed to represent independent draws from this distribution In addition, instead of using standard linear regression, another (simple) program must be employed to estimate the model. Thus, tradeoffs between the maximum likelihood and least squares approaches are also discussed.
ACCESSION #
4472076

 

Related Articles

  • A Meta-Analysis of Applications of Diffusion Models. Sultan, Fareena; Farley, John U.; Lehmann, Donald R. // Journal of Marketing Research (JMR);Feb1990, Vol. 27 Issue 1, p70 

    A meta-analysis of 213 applications of diffusion models from 15 articles relates model parameters to the nature of the innovation, the country under study, model specification, and estimation procedure. The effect of use of the same data by several researchers is examined, as are weighting...

  • Redução do tempo de setup como estratégia de aumento da capacidade produtiva: estudo de caso em sopradora de garrafas plásticas. Bartz, Teonas; Mairesse Siluk, Júlio Cezar; Garcia, Mateus // Exacta;2012, Vol. 10 Issue 1, p36 

    The increasing demand for the introduction of new products to serve all customers from different markets causes companies to seek new concepts in planning and programming production and in the changing of tools. Single- Minute Exchange of Die (SMED) reduces the setup time of equipment,...

  • Similarity Comparison of Mechanical Parts. Taesik Hong; Kunwoo Lee; Sungchan Kim; Chongnam Chu; Hyunchan Lee // Computer-Aided Design & Applications (Computer-Aided Design & Ap;2005, Vol. 2 Issue 6, p759 

    It is very often necessary to search for similar parts during designing a new product because modifying existing similar parts is a commonly used way of creating new parts with ease. In this way, the design time and cost can be reduced. Thus it would be nice to have an efficient similarity...

  • New Products.  // Consulting-Specifying Engineer;Jun2004, Vol. 35 Issue 6, p52 

    Features latest technological advances available in the market. Uses of the power delivery system; Advantages of the network protocol converters; Sensing elements and electronics of the condensation detector.

  • New Product Review's Top 40.  // Natural Foods Merchandiser;Feb2005, Vol. 26 Issue 2, p49 

    The article reports that each month, The Natural Foods Merchandiser polls retailers throughout the United States to determine what products are selling in various regions. To participate the readers are required to contact bedmonds@newhope.com. The table in the article depicts the categories...

  • A Marketing-Decision-Support Model for Evaluating and Selecting Concepts for New Products. Gensch, Dennis // Interfaces;May/Jun2001 2 of 2, Vol. 31 Issue 3, pS166 

    For a major manufacturer of heating and cooling systems for large buildings, under increasing pressure to produce new product components, I developed a marketing-decision-support model of its process for selecting and developing new products that was comprehensive, objective, and dynamic. This...

  • A Computer-Based Design Reuse System. Shahin, Tamer M. M.; Sivaloganathan, S. // Computer-Aided Design & Applications;2005, Vol. 2 Issue 1-4, p349 

    Structuring past designs and storing them in computer archives for future use with ease are two essential components of a Design Reuse System. This paper presents a methodology that structures and stores mechanical designs at their conceptual, embodiment and detailed stages for reuse. Its...

  • Reklamos įtaka naujų prekiÄ– sklaidai: komunikacinis ir analitinis (matematinis) požiÅ«riai. Pikturnienė, Indre // Management of Organizations: Systematic Research;2006, Issue 37, p105 

    The article presents communicational and analytical models of new product diffusion. The models explain how advertising affects new product adopters, the stages of effects, what adopter groups should be targeted, what should be the optimal content of new product advertising.

  • specialties In Brief.  // Chemical Market Reporter;9/13/2004, Vol. 266 Issue 8, p9 

    Reports on the introduction of the new classes of compounds to expand in the presence in the fluorine market. Indication of the first class of new products; Use as an intermediate in other processes.

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of THE LIBRARY OF VIRGINIA

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics