TITLE

# Chasing DiMaggio: Streaks in Simulated Seasons Using Non-Constant At-Bats

AUTHOR(S)
David Rockoff; Philip Yates
PUB. DATE
May 2009
SOURCE
Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports;May2009, Vol. 5 Issue 2, p1167
SOURCE TYPE
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
On March 30, 2008, Samuel Arbesman and Steven Strogatz had their article "A Journey to Baseball's Alternate Universe" published in The New York Times. They simulated baseball's entire history 10,000 times to ask how likely it was for anyone in baseball history to achieve a streak that is at least as long as Joe DiMaggio's hitting streak of 56 in 1941. Arbesman and Strogatz treated a player's at bats per game as a constant across all games in a season, which greatly overestimates the probability of long streaks. The simulations in this paper treated at-bats in a game as a random variable. For each player in each season, the number of at-bats for each simulated game was bootstrapped. The number of hits for player i in season j in game k is a binomial random variable with the number of trials being equal to the number of at bats the player gets in game k and the probability of success being equal to that player's batting average for that season. The result of using non-constant at-bats in the simulation was a decrease in the percentage of the baseball histories to see a hitting streak of at least 56 games from 42% (Arbesman and Strogatz) to approximately 2.5%.
ACCESSION #
44026676

## Related Articles

• The DiMaggio Enigma. Kennedy, Kostya // Sports Illustrated;5/16/2011, Vol. 114 Issue 20, p16

The author offers opinions on the baseball record of 56 consecutive games with a base hit by a batter set by Joe DiMaggio in 1941. The opinion of player Andre Ethier, who had a streak of 30 such games in 2011, that such streaks are harder than in DiMaggio's era is refuted, with statistics...

• That's the Second-Biggest Hitting Streak I've Ever Seen! Verifying Simulated Historical Extremes in Baseball. Andrew Thomas // Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports;Oct2010, Vol. 6 Issue 4, p1266

There is considerable interest in two consecutive game streak records in baseball, namely, the celebrated 56-game hitting streak of Joe DiMaggio and the less famous 84-games-reaching-base streak of Ted Williams, and how likely these records would be predicted to occur if the history of Major...

• THE STREAK. Kennedy, Kostya // Sports Illustrated;3/14/2011, Vol. 114 Issue 11, p60

An excerpt is presented from the book "56: Joe DiMaggio & the Last Magic Number in Sports," by Kostya Kennedy. The performance of baseball player Joe DiMaggio of the New York Yankees in the 1941 season in which he set the batting record of recording a base hit in 56 consecutive games is...

• JOLTING JOE AND CHARLIE HUSTLE: THE IMMEDIATE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF AN EXTENDED HITTING STREAK. Horowitz, Ira; Lackritz, Jim // American Economist;Spring2012, Vol. 57 Issue 1, p42

We show that Joe DiMaggio's 56-game hitting streak and Pete Rose's 44-game hitting streak had an economic payoff to not just their teams but the other teams they played while they were in the midst of streaking, by directly drawing fans into the ballpark. Once the streaks ended, however,...

• Why Long Hitting Streaks Attract Appreciation of Fans. Kuenster, John // Baseball Digest;Aug2009, Vol. 68 Issue 6, p19

The author discusses the reasons behind the baseball fanatics' appreciation of long hitting streaks. He stresses that baseball fanatics are deeply affected by the efforts of players of making a run on the historic 56-game hitting streak of Joe DiMaggio in 1941. The author emphasizes that the...

• DIMAGGIO CODE.  // Saturday Evening Post;9/25/1937, Vol. 210 Issue 13, p104

Relates the outcome of an encounter with U.S. baseball player Joe DiMaggio during a batting practice in 1937. Impression of the player; Personality trait.

• Record setting.  // Professional Safety;May2003, Vol. 48 Issue 5, p56

Determines the batting records of American baseball player Joe DiMaggio.

• The First Michael Jordan. Will, George F. // Newsweek (Pacific Edition);03/22/99 (Pacific Edition), Vol. 133 Issue 12, p4

Opinion. Reflects on the life of baseball player and American hero Joe DiMaggio upon his death in March 1999. DiMaggio as his generation's archetype of a gentleman; How Christy Mathewson prepared the United States for DiMaggio; DiMaggio's understated style; How baseball players express...

• The First Michael Jordan. Will, George F. // Newsweek (Atlantic Edition);03/22/99 (Atlantic Edition), Vol. 133 Issue 12, p6

Opinion. Reflects on the life of baseball player and American hero Joe DiMaggio upon his death in March 1999. DiMaggio as his generation's archetype of a gentleman; How Christy Mathewson prepared the United States for DiMaggio; DiMaggio's understated style; How baseball players express...

Share