TITLE

The Multiensemble Approach: The NAEFS Example

AUTHOR(S)
Candille, Guillem
PUB. DATE
May 2009
SOURCE
Monthly Weather Review;May2009, Vol. 137 Issue 5, p1655
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
The North American Ensemble Forecasting System (NAEFS) is the combination of two Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) coming from two operational centers: the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). This system provides forecasts of up to 16 days and should improve the predictability skill of the probabilistic system, especially for the second week. First, a comparison between the two components of the NAEFS is performed for several atmospheric variables with “objective” verification tools developed at CMC [i.e., the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and its reliability-resolution decomposition, the reduced centered random variable, and confidence intervals estimated with bootstrap methods]. The CMC system is more reliable, especially because of a better ensemble dispersion, while the NCEP system has better probabilistic resolution. The NAEFS, compared to the CMC and NCEP EPSs, shows significant improvements both in terms of reliability and resolution. The predictability has been improved by 1–2 forecast days in the second week. That improvement is not only a result of the increased ensemble size in the EPS—from 20 members to 40 in the present case—but also to the combination of different models and initial condition perturbations. By randomly mixing members from the CMC and NCEP systems in a 20-member EPS, an intrinsic skill improvement of the system is observed.
ACCESSION #
40418033

 

Related Articles

  • All About STARGAZING Forecasts. Creed, Phillip J. // Sky & Telescope;Feb2010, Vol. 119 Issue 2, p60 

    The article offers tips for stargazers on how to interpret and predict weather forecasts and create one's own based on observations in the sky. It advises users to see the Clear Sky Charts which are based on the Canadian Meteorological Center's (CMC) Global Environmental Multisclate (GEM) model,...

  • Verification of Precipitation Forecasts from NCEP's Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) System with Reference to Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Using Lumped Hydrologic Models. Brown, James D.; Seo, Dong-Jun; Du, Jun // Journal of Hydrometeorology;Jun2012, Vol. 13 Issue 3, p808 

    Precipitation forecasts from the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are verified for the period April 2006-August 2010. Verification is conducted for 10-20 hydrologic basins in each of the following: the middle Atlantic, the...

  • Comparison of tropospheric temperatures derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, NCEP operational... Basist, Alan N.; Chelliah, Muthuvel // Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society;Jul97, Vol. 78 Issue 7, p1431 

    Presents information on a study which the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) conducted on the use of atmospheric temperatures for data analysis. Combination of data sources into Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS); Background information on GDAS; Results of the study.

  • Performance of an advanced MOS system in the 1996-97 National Collegiate Weather Forecasting Contest Vislocky, Robert L.; Fritsch, J. Michael // Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society;Dec97, Vol. 78 Issue 12, p2851 

    Gives information on the documentation of the results of the 1996-97 National Collegiate Weather Forecast Contest (NCWFC), while tracking the relative performance of the advanced model output statistic (AMOS) system. Evaluation of automated forecast systems disseminated by the National Centers...

  • The Skill of Ensemble Prediction Systems. Atger, Frederic // Monthly Weather Review;Sep99, Vol. 127 Issue 9, p1 

    The performance of ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) is investigated by examining the probability distribution of 500-hPa geopotential height over Europe. The probability score (or half Brier score) is used to evaluate the quality of probabilistic forecasts of a single binary event. The skill...

  • Sensitivity of the NCEP Regional Spectral Model to Domain Size and Nesting Strategy. Henry Juang, Hann-Ming; Hong, Song-You // Monthly Weather Review;Dec2001, Vol. 129 Issue 12, p2904 

    This paper evaluates the performance of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM) based on the sensitivities of different model domain sizes and horizontal resolutions. The perturbation method and the spectral computation in the NCEP RSM construct the...

  • Seasonal Cycle of the Climatological Stationary Waves in the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis. Wang, Hailan; Ting, Mingfang // Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences;11/15/99, Vol. 56 Issue 22, p3892 

    Features a study on the maintenance mechanisms of the climatological stationary waves and their seasonal cycle using a linear stationary wave model and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data from 1985-1993. Methodology of the...

  • The dynamics of intraseasonal atmospheric angular momentum oscillations. Weickmann, Klaus M.; Kiladis, George N. // Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences;6/1/97, Vol. 54 Issue 11, p1445 

    Discusses the global and zonal atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) budget, which was computed from data by the National Centers for Environmental Predictions, and the construction of a composite budget of intraseasonal variations during northern winter. Synoptic features during the AAM cycle.

  • An Improved Coupled Model for ENSO Prediction and Implications for Ocean Initialization. Part I: The Ocean Data Assimilation System. Behringer, David W.; Ji, Ming; Leetmaa, Ants // Monthly Weather Review;Apr98, Vol. 126 Issue 4, p1013 

    An improved forecast system has been developed for El Nino--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Improvements have been made both to the ocean data assimilation system and to the coupled ocean--atmosphere forecast model. In Part I of a...

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of THE LIBRARY OF VIRGINIA

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics