Is It Really Darkest Before the Dawn?

Riepe, Mark W.
April 2009
Journal of Financial Planning;Apr2009, Vol. 22 Issue 4, p32
Academic Journal
The article investigates the past performance of the U.S. stock market as a guide to the possible future trajectory of the economy. The analysis focuses on the worst financial quarters of the post-World War II period. It is said that either the last quarter of 2008 or the first quarter of 2009 is likely to be the lowest point of the global financial crisis. It is noted, however, that individuals may be reluctant to invest in stocks, due to the human tendency to assume that trends will persist. The contrast between investing strategies based on historical data and actually investing under conditions of uncertainty and volatility is discussed.


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