TITLE

Statistical Prediction of Weekly Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Southern Hemisphere

AUTHOR(S)
Leroy, Anne; Wheeler, Matthew C.
PUB. DATE
October 2008
SOURCE
Monthly Weather Review;Oct2008, Vol. 136 Issue 10, p3637
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
A statistical prediction scheme, employing logistic regression, is developed to predict the probability of tropical cyclone (TC) formation in zones of the Southern Hemisphere during forthcoming weeks. Through physical reasoning, examination of previous research, and some new analysis, five predictors were chosen for this purpose: one representing the climatological seasonal cycle of TC activity in each zone, two representing the eastward propagation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), and a further two representing the leading patterns of interannual sea surface temperature variability in the Indo-Pacific Oceans. Cross-validated hindcasts were generated, being careful to use the predictors at lags that replicate what can be performed in real time. All predictors contribute significantly to the skill of the hindcasts for at least some leads in the majority of zones. In particular, it is found that inclusion of indices of the MJO as predictors leads to increased skill out to about the third week. Beyond the third week, the skill asymptotically approaches that which can be achieved through consideration of the seasonal cycle and interannual variability alone. Furthermore, the importance of a simple consideration of the seasonal cycle of TC activity for intraseasonal TC prediction, for all forecast leads, is demonstrated.
ACCESSION #
34783199

 

Related Articles

  • Verification of Categorical Probability Forecasts. Zhang, H.; Casey, T. // Weather & Forecasting;Feb2000, Vol. 15 Issue 1, p80 

    This paper compares a number of probabilistic weather forecasting verification approaches. Forecasting skill scores from linear error in probability space and relative operating characteristics are compared with results from an alternative approach that first transforms probabilistic forecasts...

  • Distributions-Oriented Verification of Probability Forecasts for Small Data Samples. Bradley, A. Allen; Hashino, Tempei; Schwartz, Stuart S. // Weather & Forecasting;Oct2003, Vol. 18 Issue 5, p903 

    The distributions-oriented approach to forecast verification uses an estimate of the joint distribution of forecasts and observations to evaluate forecast quality. However, small verification data samples can produce unreliable estimates of forecast quality due to sampling variability and...

  • ON-LINE MIXTURE-BASED ALTERNATIVE TO LOGISTIC REGRESSION. Nagy, I.; Suzdaleva, E. // Neural Network World;2016, Issue 5, p417 

    The paper deals with a problem of modeling discrete variables depending on continuous variables. This problem is known as the logistic regression estimated by numerical methods. The paper approaches the problem via the recursive Bayesian estimation of mixture models with the purpose of exploring...

  • On Using “Climatology” as a Reference Strategy in the Brier and Ranked Probability Skill Scores. Mason, Simon J. // Monthly Weather Review;Jul2004, Vol. 132 Issue 7, p1891 

    The Brier and ranked probability skill scores are widely used as skill metrics of probabilistic forecasts of weather and climate. As skill scores, they compare the extent to which a forecast strategy outperforms a (usually simpler) reference forecast strategy. The most widely used reference...

  • A Comparison of the Canadian Global and Regional Meteorological Ensemble Prediction Systems for Short-Term Hydrological Forecasting. Abaza, Mabrouk; Anctil, François; Fortin, Vincent; Turcotte, Richard // Monthly Weather Review;Oct2013, Vol. 141 Issue 10, p3462 

    Meteorological ensemble prediction systems (M-EPS) are generally set up at lower resolution than for their deterministic counterparts. Operational hydrologists are thus more prone to selecting deterministic meteorological forecasts for driving their hydrological models. Limited-area...

  • Information-Based Skill Scores for Probabilistic Forecasts. Ahrens, Bodo; Walser, André // Monthly Weather Review;Jan2008, Vol. 136 Issue 1, p352 

    The information content, that is, the predictive capability, of a forecast system is often quantified with skill scores. This paper introduces two ranked mutual information skill (RMIS) scores, RMISO and RMISY, for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts. These scores are based on the concept...

  • Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics and Minimum CRPS Estimation. Gneiting, Tilmann; Raftery, Adrian E.; Westveld III, Anton H.; Goldman, Tom // Monthly Weather Review;May2005, Vol. 133 Issue 5, p1098 

    Ensemble prediction systems typically show positive spread-error correlation, but they are subject to forecast bias and dispersion errors, and are therefore uncalibrated. This work proposes the use of ensemble model output statistics (EMOS), an easy-to-implement postprocessing technique that...

  • Increasing the Reliability of Reliability Diagrams. Bröcker, Jochen; Smith, Leonard A. // Weather & Forecasting;Jun2007, Vol. 22 Issue 3, p651 

    The reliability diagram is a common diagnostic graph used to summarize and evaluate probabilistic forecasts. Its strengths lie in the ease with which it is produced and the transparency of its definition. While visually appealing, major long-noted shortcomings lie in the difficulty of...

  • Evaluation of probabilistic precipitation forecast determined from WRF forecasted amounts. Tanessong, Roméo; Igri, P.; Vondou, Derbetini; Tamo, P.; Kamga, F. // Theoretical & Applied Climatology;May2014, Vol. 116 Issue 3-4, p649 

    This paper examines the connection between the probability of precipitation and forecast amounts from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model runs over Central and West Africa. A one season period (June-September 2010) was used to investigate the quantitative precipitation...

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of THE LIBRARY OF VIRGINIA

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics