TITLE

A New Verification Method to Ensure Consistent Ensemble Forecasts through Calibrated Precipitation Downscaling Models

AUTHOR(S)
Mascaro, Giuseppe; Deidda, Roberto; Vivoni, Enrique R.
PUB. DATE
September 2008
SOURCE
Monthly Weather Review;Sep2008, Vol. 136 Issue 9, p3374
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
A new verification method is proposed to test the consistency of ensemble high-resolution precipitation fields forecasted by calibrated downscaling models. The method is based on a generalization of the verification rank histogram and tests the exceedance probability of a fixed precipitation threshold calculated from the observed or ensemble fields. A graphical tool that accounts for random assignments of the rank is proposed to provide guidance in histogram interpretation and to avoid a possible misunderstanding of model deficiencies. The verification method is applied on three numerical experiments carried out in controlled conditions using the space–time rainfall (STRAIN) downscaling model with the aims of investigating (i) the effect of sampling variability on parameter estimation from the observed fields and (ii) model performance when calibration relations between the parameter and a coarse meteorological observable are used to interpret events arising from one or more physical conditions. Results show that (i) ensemble members generated using the parameters estimated on the observed event are overdispersed; (ii) the adoption of a single calibration relation can lead to the generation of consistent ensemble members; and (iii) when a single calibration relation is not able to explain observed event variability, storm-specific calibration relations should be adopted to return consistent forecasts.
ACCESSION #
34388016

 

Related Articles

  • The 4 June 1999 Derecho Event: A Particularly Difficult Challenge for Numerical Weather Prediction. Gallus Jr., William A.; Correia Jr., James; Jankov, Isidora // Weather & Forecasting;Oct2005, Vol. 20 Issue 5, p705 

    Warm season convective system rainfall forecasts remain a particularly difficult forecast challenge. For these events, it is possible that ensemble forecasts would provide helpful information unavailable in a single deterministic forecast. In this study, an intense derecho event accompanied by a...

  • Sensitivity to Horizontal Resolution in the AGCM Simulations of Warm Season Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation over the United States and Northern Mexico. Myong-In Lee; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Suarez, Max J.; Held, Isaac M.; Kumar, Arun; Bell, Thomas L.; Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.; Ngar-Cheung Lau; Ploshay, Jeffrey J.; Hyun-Kyung Kim; Soo-Hyun Yoo // Journal of Climate;May2007, Vol. 20 Issue 9, p1862 

    This study examines the sensitivity of the North American warm season diurnal cycle of precipitation to changes in horizontal resolution in three atmospheric general circulation models, with a primary focus on how the parameterized moist processes respond to improved resolution of topography and...

  • Role of Antecedent Land Surface Conditions in Warm Season Precipitation over Northwestern Mexico. Chunmei Zhu; Cavazos, Tereza; Lettenmaier, Dennis P. // Journal of Climate;May2007, Vol. 20 Issue 9, p1774 

    The role of antecedent land surface conditions including precipitation (P), surface skin temperature (Ts), soil moisture (Sm), and snow water equivalent (SWE) anomalies on the onset and intensity of the monsoon during the 1950–99 period in the core of the North American monsoon system...

  • Characteristics of U.S. Extreme Rain Events during 1999–2003. Schumacher, Russ S.; Johnson, Richard H. // Weather & Forecasting;Feb2006, Vol. 21 Issue 1, p69 

    This study examines the characteristics of a large number of extreme rain events over the eastern two-thirds of the United States. Over a 5-yr period, 184 events are identified where the 24-h precipitation total at one or more stations exceeds the 50-yr recurrence amount for that location. Over...

  • Relationship between forecast precipitation relative errors and skill scores: the case of rare event frequencies. Tartaglione, N. // Advances in Geosciences;2009, Vol. 20, p19 

    This paper addresses the problem of the relationship between skill scores and forecast rainfall relative errors. The problem is approached by using synthetic time series of rainfall data representing the observations. It is assumed that the magnitude of the relative error is known. The forecasts...

  • Expect a cool, wet start to summer. SOULJE, GREG // Ohio Farmer;May2013, Vol. 309 Issue 5, p16 

    The article presents a weather forecast to the summer months of June to July 2013 in the Northeastern states in the U.S. It is expected that the La Niña against the El Niño-driven cycles in the Pacific Ocean will give way to warmer temperatures in the Northeast compare to below normal...

  • Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasting using a Deterministic Model Output over Iran. Azadi, M.; Zakeri, Z. // Research Journal of Environmental Sciences;2010, Vol. 4 Issue 2, p138 

    An attempt is made to produce probabilistic precipitation forecasts from deterministic model output over Iran. Due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, probabilistic weather forecasts can be used to quantify the intrinsic uncertainty in the output of meteorological forecasting models....

  • weather report.  // Clarendon Enterprise (TX);7/20/2006, Vol. 17 Issue 31, p3 

    A weather report on the total precipitation in Clarendon, Texas for the month of July 2006 is presented.

  • Weather.  // Grand Saline Sun (TX);8/24/2006, Vol. 110 Issue 34, p1 

    This article presents a weather forecast from August 15 to 21, 2006 in East Texas.

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of THE LIBRARY OF VIRGINIA

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics