Surprise party

Grafstein, Robert; Caruson, Kiki
October 2008
Public Choice;Oct2008, Vol. 137 Issue 1/2, p315
Academic Journal
Alesina’s (Quarterly Journal of Economics 102, 651–678, ) influential model of presidential elections with ideologically motivated parties attributes higher growth and lower unemployment under Democratic presidents to the surprise inflation a Democratic victory entails. In contrast to the published literature, we test this hypothesis using calculations of presidential election surprises consistent with the assumption of rational economic actors. We confront the econometric complications attending a time-series approach taking into account economic growth dynamics. We ultimately fail to confirm the hypothesis that the level of uncertainty associated with presidential election results has an effect on economic outcomes.


Related Articles

  • Supreme Irony. Wittes, Benjamin // Atlantic;Nov2004, Vol. 294 Issue 4, p50 

    The article discusses the United States Supreme Court and the concerns that arise from both sides of the political spectrum during an election year. The author believes that as elections near, partisans complain of the "balance" of the Court. Historical examples of a president's influence on the...

  • LETTERS TO THE EDITOR. Bendix, William; Paduda, Joseph; Ovenall, Derick; Cooper, Richard A.; Miller, Phillip; Kirch, Darrell G.; Cohen, Jed; Parshall, Sandra; Divine, Dennis; Thomas, Richard; Abrams, Barry; Attwood, Donald; Thurston, Thomas M.; Lewis, Helen // Atlantic;Mar2008, Vol. 301 Issue 2, p12 

    Several letters to the editor are presented in response to articles in previous issues including "Goodbye to All That" in the December 2007 issue, "Overdose" in the December 2007 issue, and "A Bright Shining Lie" in the December 2007 issue.

  • Letters. Kumar, K. Chidanand; Button, Tom; Shoji, Ryuhei; Amram-Oymak, Gan; Sethi, S. S.; Fanta, Tesfaye Alemayehu; Sharma, Bam Dev; Vandenabeele, Emma; Herathge, Sujatha; De Menezes, Dalgimar Beserra; Behar, Marie-Hélène; Haldeman, Neil; Berger, Susan; Freidenrich, Denny; Martin, Anne; Webb, David; Wager, Ken; Trapanese, Joanne; Anderson, Frederica; Havens, H. Gordon // Newsweek (Atlantic Edition);12/22/2008 (Atlantic Edition), Vol. 152 Issue 25, p14 

    Several letters to the editor are presented in response to the article "President Obama, 44," that appeared in the November 17, 2008 issue and "The Case for Barack Obama," by Fareed Zakaria that appeared in the October 27, 2008 issue.

  • VOTE! VOTE! VOTE! W. A. T. E. R. 17 // New York Amsterdam News;10/30/2008, Vol. 99 Issue 45, p1 

    The author reflects on the 2008 presidential elections in the U.S. He comments on the political philosophy of Black Nationalism and how politics plays an important role in people. He states that the country is in the brink of major change. He adds that the country needs a political, cultural,...

  • ON THE PROWL.  // American Spectator;Sep2007, Vol. 40 Issue 7, p14 

    News briefs related to U.S. politics are presented. Conflicts between Democratic members of Congress are noted, including between Senators Patty Murray and David Vitter, and between Representatives Jesse Jackson Jr. and Lee Terry. Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack has endorsed Democratic presidential...

  • It's Up to Us. Sanford, Mark // American Spectator;May2009, Vol. 42 Issue 4, p8 

    The article discusses the concept of freedom in the United States of America. The author claims that conservatives have not effectively determined the proper and limited role of government, leading to the party's loss in the 2008 presidential elections. Several ways for conservatives to stop...

  • LETTERS. Jones, Wanda; Frank, Joe; Derouge, Jean; Roboubi, Babak; Cranston, Craig; Burton, Vernon S.; Terry, Elizabeth; Dineen, Jane; Formanek, Tom; Lippe, Scott David; Nir, Ori; Gevirtz, Larry; Scott, Quincy; Williams, Tennessee; Reynolds, Jeff H.; Cummings, Steve; Grasmehr, Greg; White, Shirley; Herrmann, Fred; Walts, Adam // Time;2/19/2007, Vol. 169 Issue 8, p9 

    Several letters to the editor are presented. Some of the subjects included in the letters are the 2008 U.S. Presidential election and responses to the articles "In Defense of Partisan Bickering," and "In the Land of the Lonely," both of which were published in the February 5, 2007 issue.

  • Crossing the aisle.  // Christian Century;2/26/2008, Vol. 125 Issue 4, p7 

    The article presents the author's reflections on the partisan structure of U.S. politics and the need to overcome them in order to truly prosper. The non-partisan rhetoric used by the 2008 presidential candidates is highlighted and supported, suggesting that the entire structure of U.S. politics...

  • The Next President. Hentoff, Nat; DiIulio, Jr., John J.; Bottum, Joseph // First Things: A Monthly Journal of Religion & Public Life;Nov2007, Issue 177, p39 

    The article presents a reflection on the 2008 United States presidential elections. The article presents the views of three authors that reflect on various issues, including the Democratic Party and the issue of abortion, the issue of poverty and U.S. senator and presidential candidate Hillary...


Read the Article


Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics