TITLE

Forecasting Inflation--Surveys Versus Other Forecasts

AUTHOR(S)
Thomas Jr., Lloyd B.
PUB. DATE
July 2000
SOURCE
Business Economics;Jul2000, Vol. 35 Issue 3, p9
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
Few forecasts are as common in business as forecasts for inflation. Surveys, time-series methods and structural econometric models are the most frequently used means for making such forecasts. In addition, it may be possible to infer future inflation forecasts from the behavior of financial markets. This study takes representative examples from each genre and makes a systematic comparison of how well they performed in the 1980s and 1990s. The results indicate that there is little difference between structural models and surveys. Both are markedly superior, however, to an ARIMA time series model and to inferences from financial markets. Thus, cost and other factors may be the major determinants in each firm's choice between structural models and surveys.
ACCESSION #
3382421

 

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