Model for end-stage liver disease score versus Child score in predicting the outcome of surgical procedures in patients with cirrhosis

Hoteit, Maarouf A.; Ghazale, Amaar H.; Bain, Andrew J.; Rosenberg, Eli S.; Easley, Kirk A.; Anania, Frank A.; Rutherford, Robin E.; Yoshida, Hiroshi
March 2008
World Journal of Gastroenterology;3/21/2008, Vol. 14 Issue 11, p1774
Academic Journal
AIM: To determine factors affecting the outcome of patients with cirrhosis undergoing surgery and to compare the capacities of the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score to predict that outcome. METHODS: We reviewed the charts of 195 patients with cirrhosis who underwent surgery at two teaching hospitals over a five-year period. The combined endpoint of death or hepatic decompensation was considered to be the primary endpoint. RESULTS: Patients who reached the endpoint had a higher MELD score, a higher CTP score and were more likely to have undergone an urgent procedure. Among patients undergoing elective surgical procedures, no statistically significant difference was noted in the mean MELD (12.8 ± 3.9 vs 12.6 ± 4.7, P = 0.9) or in the mean CTP (7.6 ± 1.2 vs 7.7 ± 1.7, P = 0.8) between patients who reached the endpoint and those who did not. Both mean scores were higher in the patients reaching the endpoint in the case of urgent procedures (MELD: 22.4 ± 8.7 vs 15.2 ± 6.4, P = 0.0007; CTP: 9.9 ± 1.8 vs 8.5 ± 1.8, P = 0.008). The performances of the MELD and CTP scores in predicting the outcome of urgent surgery were only fair, without a significant difference between them (AUC = 0.755 ± 0.066 for MELD vs AUC = 0.696 ± 0.070 for CTP, P = 0.3).


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