TITLE

Prediction of the Diurnal Cycle Using a Multimodel Superensemble. Part II: Clouds

AUTHOR(S)
Chakraborty, Arindam; Krishnamurti, T. N.; Gnanaseelan, C.
PUB. DATE
December 2007
SOURCE
Monthly Weather Review;Dec2007, Vol. 135 Issue 12, p4097
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
This study addresses the issue of cloud parameterization in general circulation models utilizing a twofold approach. Four versions of the Florida State University (FSU) global spectral model (GSM) were used, including four different cloud parameterization schemes in order to construct ensemble forecasts of cloud covers. Next, a superensemble approach was used to combine these model forecasts based on their past performance. It was shown that it is possible to substantially reduce the 1–5-day forecast errors of phase and amplitude of the diurnal cycle of clouds from the use of a multimodel superensemble. Further, the statistical information generated in the construction of a superensemble was used to develop a unified cloud parameterization scheme for a single model. This new cloud scheme, when implemented in the FSU GSM, carried a higher forecast accuracy compared to those of the individual cloud schemes and their ensemble mean for the diurnal cycle of cloud cover up to day 5 of the forecasts. This results in a 5–10 W m-2 improvement in the root-mean-square error to the upward longwave and shortwave flux at the top of the atmosphere, especially over deep convective regions. It is shown that while the multimodel superensemble is still the best product in forecasting the diurnal cycle of clouds, a unified cloud parameterization scheme, implemented in a single model, also provides higher forecast accuracy compared to the individual cloud models. Moreover, since this unified scheme is an integral part of the model, the forecast accuracy of the single model improves in terms of radiative fluxes and thus has greater impacts on weather and climate time scales. This new cloud scheme will be tested in real-time simulations.
ACCESSION #
28028608

 

Related Articles

  • The Research Experiences for Undergraduates Program: The 1995 Program at the Oklahoma Weather Center. Cortinas Jr., John V.; Straka, Jerry M.; Beasley, William H.; Schneider, Jeanne M.; Machacek, Cynthia M. // Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society;Dec96, Vol. 77 Issue 12, p2925 

    The 1995 Research Experiences for Undergraduates program at the Oklahoma Weather Center introduced 14 students to the rigor of meteorological research, as well as provided them with information to help make informed career decisions. A unique portion of the summer program was the students'...

  • Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts as Revealed by Singular Vectors. Peng, Melinda S.; Reynolds, Carolyn A. // Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences;Oct2006, Vol. 63 Issue 10, p2508 

    Singular vector (SV) sensitivity, calculated using the adjoint model of the U.S. Navy Operation Global Atmosphere Prediction System (NOGAPS), is used to study the dynamics associated with tropical cyclone evolution. For each model-predicted tropical cyclone, SVs are constructed that optimize...

  • The Uncoordinated Giant: Why U.S. Weather Research and Prediction Are Not Achieving Their Potential. Mass, Clifford // Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society;May2006, Vol. 87 Issue 5, p573 

    Although the large U.S. meteorological community has made significant strides in weather diagnosis and prediction, progress has been slowed by a lack of cooperation, coordination, and pooling of resources. This paper analyzes such problems in a number of areas, ranging from numerical weather...

  • August favors dry-day streaks. SEELEY, MARK // Farmer;Aug2015, Vol. 133 Issue 8, p100 

    The article discuses Cutting Hay during dry days in August is beneficial than rainy days which are rare. The article also represents the study of the Minnesota agricultural landscape and 100 years of climate recordings showing continue rain in the year 1951 and 1997.Given dry day means next day...

  • A cycled sensitivity observing system experiment on simulated Doppler wind lidar data during the 1999 Christmas storm ‘Martin’. Marseille, Gert-Jan; Stoffelen, A. D.; Barkmeijer, Jan // Tellus: Series A;Mar2008, Vol. 60 Issue 2, p249 

    In a companion paper in this issue Sensitivity Observing System Experiment (SOSE) has been introduced as a new method to assess the potential added value of future observing systems for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). There, SOSE was introduced as a single cycle experiment, meaning that...

  • New VLBI2010 scheduling strategies and implications on the terrestrial reference frames. Sun, Jing; Böhm, Johannes; Nilsson, Tobias; Krásná, Hana; Böhm, Sigrid; Schuh, Harald // Journal of Geodesy;May2014, Vol. 88 Issue 5, p449 

    In connection with the work for the next generation VLBI2010 Global Observing System (VGOS) of the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry, a new scheduling package (Vie_Sched) has been developed at the Vienna University of Technology as a part of the Vienna VLBI Software. In...

  • An update on THORPEX-related research in data assimilation and observing strategies. Rabier, F.; Gauthier, P.; Cardinali, C.; Langland, R.; Tsyrulnikov, M.; Lorenc, A.; Steinle, P.; Gelaro, R.; Koizumi, K. // Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics;2008, Vol. 15 Issue 1, p81 

    The international programme "THORPEX: a WorldWeather Research Programme" provides a framework in which to tackle the challenge of improving the forecast skill of high-impact weather through international collaboration between academic institutions, operational forecast centres, and users of...

  • GEPS-Based Monthly Prediction at the Canadian Meteorological Centre. Lin, Hai; Gagnon, Normand; Beauregard, Stephane; Muncaster, Ryan; Markovic, Marko; Denis, Bertrand; Charron, Martin // Monthly Weather Review;Dec2016, Vol. 144 Issue 12, p4867 

    Dynamical monthly prediction at the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) was produced as part of the seasonal forecasting system over the past two decades. A new monthly forecasting system, which has been in operation since July 2015, is set up based on the operational Global Ensemble Prediction...

  • Sensitivity Observing System Experiment (SOSE)—a new effective NWP-based tool in designing the global observing system. Marseille, Gert-Jan; Stoffelen, A. D.; Barkmeijer, Jan // Tellus: Series A;Mar2008, Vol. 60 Issue 2, p216 

    Lacking an established methodology to test the potential impact of prospective extensions to the global observing system (GOS) in real atmospheric cases we developed such a method, called Sensitivity Observing System Experiment (SOSE). For example, since the GOS is non uniform it is of interest...

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of NEW JERSEY STATE LIBRARY

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics