TITLE

Predictability of Cold Spring Seasons in Europe

AUTHOR(S)
Shongwe, Mxolisi E.; Ferro, Christopher A. T.; Coelho, Caio A. S.; Jan van Oldenborgh, Geert
PUB. DATE
December 2007
SOURCE
Monthly Weather Review;Dec2007, Vol. 135 Issue 12, p4185
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
The seasonal predictability of cold spring seasons (March–May) in Europe from hindcasts/forecasts of three operational coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) is investigated. The models used in the investigation are the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System (GloSea), the ECMWF System-2 (S2), and the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS). Using the relative operating characteristic score and the Brier skill score the long-term prediction skill for spring 2-m temperature in the lower quintile (20%) is assessed. Over much of central and eastern Europe the predictive skill is found to be high. The skill of the Met Office GloSea and ECMWF S2 models significantly surpasses that of damped persistence over much of Europe but the NCEP CFS model outperforms this reference forecast only over a small area. The higher potential predictability of cold spring seasons in eastern relative to southwestern Europe can be attributed to snow effects as areas of high skill closely correspond with the climatological snow line, and snow is shown in this paper to be linked to cold spring 2-m temperatures in eastern Europe. The ability of the models to represent snow cover during the melt season is also investigated. The Met Office GloSea and the ECMWF S2 models are able to accurately mimic the observed pattern of monthly snow-cover interannual variability, but the NCEP CFS model predicts too short a snow season. Improvements in the snow analysis and land surface parameterizations could increase the skill of seasonal forecasts for cold spring temperatures.
ACCESSION #
28028607

 

Related Articles

  • CHAPTER 13: Northern Great Plains.  // Weather Extremes of the West;2005, p242 

    Chapter 13 of the book "Weather Extremes of the West" is presented. It explores the weather, climate, and topography of the northern Great Plains. It provides an overview on the regions' weather and climate graphs and characteristics in a monthly basis, such as the variations in its...

  • Weather Watch.  // Stonewall County Courier (Aspermont, TX);11/16/2006, Vol. 20 Issue 53, p1 

    The article presents a report about the weather statistics provided by Margie Mc-Nut, the National Weather Service Cooperative observer in Aspermont, Stonewall County, Texas. It shows precipitation of .02 inch of rain for the week, starting from November 6 to 12, 2006, and a year to date...

  • Rainwater Composition at a Regional Representative Site of a Semi-Arid Region of India. Singh, S. P.; Khare, P.; Satsangi, G. S.; Lakhani, A.; Maharaj Kumari, K.; Srivastava, S. S. // Water, Air & Soil Pollution;Apr2001, Vol. 127 Issue 1-4, p93 

    Rainwater samples (N = 51) were collected at Rampur, an area free from anthropogenic activity during the monsoon of 1997 and 1998. The concentration of ions follows a general pattern as Ca > NH4 > Mg > SO4 > Cl > F > Na > NO3 > K > HCOO > CH3 COO. The pH of precipitation ranges between 5.9 and...

  • Below normal temps, precipitation sweep state KANSAS.  // High Plains Journal;12/2/2013, Vol. 131 Issue 49, p2B 

    The article reports on the weather condition in Kansas wherein most areas across the state experienced below normal temperature for the week ending November 24, 2013 as precipitation swept in most areas on November 21, 2013.

  • Heavy Precipitation Over the US: Has it Increased as Some have Predicted it Should?  // CO2 Science;8/29/2012, Vol. 15 Issue 35, p4 

    The article discusses a study which determined whether there has been a systematic change in the extreme events of precipitation. Trends of monthly precipitation were assessed for statistical significance in observations and Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations over the U.S. The study found...

  • Comments on “Statistical Single-Station Short-Term Forecasting of Temperature and Probability of Precipitation: Area Interpolation and NWP Combination”. Leslie, Lance M.; Speer, Milton S. // Weather & Forecasting;Dec2001, Vol. 16 Issue 6, p765 

    Comments on the statistical single-station short-term forecasting of temperature and probability of precipitation. Benefits and disadvantages of RB99 forecasts system; Role of statistical techniques in short-term forecasting; Features of RB99 system.

  • Active spring weather pattern coming soon. SOULJE, GREG // Kansas Farmer (0022-8583);Apr2014, Vol. 152 Issue 4, p14 

    The article focuses on the forecast of warmer-than-average weather for the West and Southwest areas in the U.S. It mentions that wet and cold weather are expected in the Midwest as well as the possibility of severe weather outbreaks. It adds that there may be potential existence of a weak El...

  • Tropospheric Comparisons of Vaisala Radiosondes and Balloon-Borne Frost-Point and Lyman-α Hygrometers during the LAUTLOS-WAVVAP Experiment. Suortti, T. M.; Kats, A.; Kivi, R.; Kämpfer, N.; Leiterer, U.; Miloshevich, L. M.; Neuber, R.; Paukkunen, A.; Ruppert, P.; Vömel, H.; Yushkov, V. // Journal of Atmospheric & Oceanic Technology;Feb2008, Vol. 25 Issue 2, p149 

    The accuracy of all types of Vaisala radiosondes and two types of Snow White chilled-mirror hygrosondes was assessed in an intensive in situ comparison with reference hygrometers. Fourteen nighttime reference comparisons were performed to determine a working reference for the radiosonde...

  • A new present-day temperature parameterization for Greenland. Fausto, Robert S.; AhlstrøM, Andreas P.; van As, Dirk; Bøggild, Carl E.; Johnsen, Sigfus J. // Journal of Glaciology;2009, Vol. 55 Issue 189, p95 

    The article reports on the parameterization of near-surface air temperature on the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). The temperature parametrization is examined in a positive degree-day model to cause the 1996-2000 mean melt field extent of the GrIS. The model backs for firn warming, refreezing and...

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of THE LIBRARY OF VIRGINIA

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics