Global Sea Surface Temperature Prediction Using a Multimodel Ensemble

Kug, Jong-Seong; Lee, June-Yi; Kang, In-Sik
September 2007
Monthly Weather Review;Sep2007, Vol. 135 Issue 9, p3239
Academic Journal
In a tier-two seasonal prediction system, prior to AGCM integration, global SSTs should first be predicted as a boundary condition to the AGCM. In this study, a global SST prediction system has been developed as a part of the tier-two seasonal prediction system. This system uses predictions from four models—one dynamic, two statistical, and persistence—and a simple composite ensemble method is applied to these models. The simple composite ensemble prediction system has predictive skill over most of the global oceans for up to a 6-month forecast lead time. The simple ensemble method is also compared with other more sophisticated ensemble methods. The simple composite method has forecast skill comparable to the other ensemble methods over the ENSO region and significantly better skill outside the ENSO region.


Related Articles

  • The seasonal cycle in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. Covey, C.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Boer, G. J.; Boville, B. A.; Cubasch, U.; Fairhead, L.; Flato, G. M.; Gordon, H.; Guilyardi, E.; Jiang, X.; Johns, T. C.; Le Treut, H.; Madec, G.; Meehl, G. A.; Miller, R.; Noda, A.; Power, S. B.; Roeckner, E.; Russell, G.; Schneider, E. K. // Climate Dynamics;Oct2000, Vol. 16 Issue 10/11, p775 

    We examine the seasonal cycle of near-surface air temperature simulated by 17 coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Nine of the models use ad hoc “flux adjustment” at the ocean surface to bring model...

  • The Atmospheric Response to Realistic Arctic Sea Ice Anomalies in an AGCM during Winter. Alexander, Michael A.; Bhatt, Uma S.; Walsh, John E.; Timlin, Michael S.; Miller, Jack S.; Scott, James D. // Journal of Climate;Mar2004, Vol. 17 Issue 5, p890 

    The influence of realistic Arctic sea ice anomalies on the atmosphere during winter is investigated with version 3.6 of the Community Climate Model (CCM3.6). Model experiments are performed for the winters with the most (1982/83) and least (1995/96) Arctic ice coverage during 1979–99,...

  • A strategy for long-term ocean observations. Nowlin Jr., Worth D. // Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society;Apr99, Vol. 80 Issue 4, p621 

    Stresses the importance of developing a system for sustained and long-term ocean observations. Suggested strategy toward the implementation of sustained ocean observations; Need for operational observing systems for different environments; International integration of ocean observing system...

  • SST-Forced Atmospheric Variability in an Atmospheric General Circulation Model. Kumar, Arun; Qin Zhang; Peitao Peng; Bhaskar Jha // Journal of Climate;Oct2005, Vol. 18 Issue 19, p3953 

    From ensembles of 80 AGCM simulations for every December–January–February (DJF) seasonal mean in the 1980–2000 period, interannual variability in atmospheric response to interannual variations in observed sea surface temperature (SST) is analyzed. A unique facet of this...

  • North Atlantic Winter Climate Regimes: Spatial Asymmetry, Stationarity with Time, and Oceanic Forcing. Cassou, Christophe; Terray, Laurent; Hurrell, James W.; Deser, Clara // Journal of Climate;Mar2004, Vol. 17 Issue 5, p1055 

    The observed low-frequency winter atmospheric variability of the North Atlantic–European region and its relationship with global surface oceanic conditions is investigated based on the climate and weather regimes paradigm. Asymmetries between the two phases of the North Atlantic...

  • Ocean Response and Feedback to the SST Dipole in the Tropical Atlantic. Joyce, Terrence M.; Frankignoul, Claude; Yang, Jiayan; Phillips, Helen E. // Journal of Physical Oceanography;Nov2004, Vol. 34 Issue 11, p2525 

    The equatorial SST dipole represents a mode of climate variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean that is closely tied to cross-equatorial flow in the atmosphere, from the cold to the warm hemisphere. It has been suggested that this mode is sustained by a positive feedback of the tropical winds...

  • Decadal Variability of Pycnocline Flows from the Subtropical to the Equatorial Pacific. Qi Wang; Rui Xin Huang // Journal of Physical Oceanography;Oct2005, Vol. 35 Issue 10, p1861 

    A method based on isopycnal trajectory analysis is proposed to quantify the pathways from the subtropics to the Tropics. For a continuous stratified ocean a virtual streamfunction is defined, which can be used to characterize these pathways. This method is applied to the climatological dataset...

  • Exchange of heat and momentum between the atmosphere and the ocean: a minimal model of decadal oscillations. Gallego, B.; Cessi, P. // Climate Dynamics;Jun2000, Vol. 16 Issue 6, p479 

    A model of the large-scale interaction between the troposphere and the upper ocean, wind-driven circulation is formulated. Simplified parametrizations, built upon the conservation of global heat and momentum, relate the atmospheric eddy heat and momentum fluxes to the zonally averaged oceanic...

  • On the parameterisation of evaporation and sensible heat exchange for shallow lakes. Panin, G. N.; Nasonov, A. E.; Foken, Th.; Lohse, H. // Theoretical & Applied Climatology;2006, Vol. 85 Issue 3/4, p123 

    This paper demonstrates that typical air–sea interaction models can be transferred to shallow water conditions and lakes including a depth dependent function. As depth decreases, it is assumed that exchange conditions increase. From our results it follows that the model without the...


Read the Article


Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics