Estimation of Predictability with a Newly Derived Index to Quantify Similarity among Ensemble Members

Yamada, Tomohito J.; Koster, Randal D.; Kanae, Shinjiro; Oki, Taikan
July 2007
Monthly Weather Review;Jul2007, Vol. 135 Issue 7, p2674
Academic Journal
This study reveals the mathematical structure of a statistical index, Ω, that quantifies similarity among ensemble members in a weather forecast. Previous approaches for quantifying predictability estimate separately the phase and shape characteristics of a forecast ensemble. The diagnostic Ω, on the other hand, characterizes the similarity (across ensemble members) of both aspects together with a simple expression. The diagnostic Ω is thus more mathematically versatile than previous indices.


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