Is That a Good Assumption?

Williamson, Chris
January 2007
Planning;Jan2007, Vol. 73 Issue 1, p40
Trade Publication
The article discusses issues related to projections and its reliability that are useful for planning. Projections are considered not fixed, and it can be accurate or inaccurate. It is defined as a conditional statement about the future based on a set of assumption. The U.S. Census Bureau state projections claims that intrastate migration will happen to the year 2030. Their national and state projections are based on assumptions about birth and death rates. They also used legal and illegal international immigration data as a starting point for city and county level projections. However, it is claimed that not all census predictions are useful since some of their reports are erroneous. Thus, planners must consider careful selection of assumptions which implied future planning decision. INSETS: Definitions;Testing Assumptions.


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