TITLE

Prediction of Near-Surface Variables at Independent Locations from a Bias-Corrected Ensemble Forecasting System

AUTHOR(S)
Yussouf, Nusrat; Stensrud, David J.
PUB. DATE
November 2006
SOURCE
Monthly Weather Review;Nov2006, Vol. 134 Issue 11, p3415
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
The ability of a multimodel short-range bias-corrected ensemble (BCE) forecasting system, created as part of NOAA’s New England High Resolution Temperature Program during the summer of 2004, to obtain accurate predictions of near-surface variables at independent locations within the model domain is explored. The original BCE approach produces bias-corrected forecasts only at National Weather Service (NWS) observing surface station locations. To extend this approach to obtain bias-corrected forecasts at any given location, an extended BCE technique is developed and applied to the independent observations provided by the Oklahoma Mesonet. First, a Cressman weighting scheme is used to interpolate the bias values of 2-m temperature, 2-m dewpoint temperature, and 10-m wind speeds calculated from the original BCE approach at the NWS observation station locations to the Oklahoma Mesonet locations. These bias values are then added to the raw numerical model forecasts bilinearly interpolated to this same specified location. This process is done for each forecast member within the ensemble and at each forecast time. It is found that the performance of the extended BCE is very competitive with the original BCE approach across the state of Oklahoma. Therefore, a simple postprocessing scheme like the extended BCE system can be used as part of an operational forecasting system to provide reasonably accurate predictions of near-surface variables at any location within the model domain.
ACCESSION #
23580159

 

Related Articles

  • Paperless chart recorder.  // RoSPA Occupational Safety & Health Journal;Jun2006, Vol. 36 Issue 6, p41 

    The article presents information on the Model RH520, a paperless humidity and temperature chart recorder from Extech Instruments. The RH520, which can be mounted on a wall or desk, provided simultaneous numerical and graphical displays of humidity and temperature, and gave calculations on dew...

  • Complex forecast of surface meteorological parameters. Bagrov, A.; Bykov, Ph.; Gordin, V. // Russian Meteorology & Hydrology;May2014, Vol. 39 Issue 5, p283 

    The statistical scheme using the results of the best foreign global schemes and the COSMO-RU7 regional scheme is proposed for forecasting surface temperature for five days and the amount of precipitation for three days. Presented are the estimates of prognostic values of the surface air...

  • Statistical downscaling of hourly and daily climate scenarios for various meteorological variables in South-central Canada. Cheng, C. S.; Li, G.; Li, Q.; Auld, H. // Theoretical & Applied Climatology;2008, Vol. 91 Issue 1-4, p129 

    A regression-based methodology was used to downscale hourly and daily station-scale meteorological variables from outputs of large-scale general circulation models (GCMs). Meteorological variables include air temperature, dew point, and west–east and south–north wind velocities at...

  • Assessing Critical Fire Weather Conditions Using a Red Flag Threat Index. Murdoch, Gregory P.; Barnes, Ryan R.; Gitro, Christopher M.; Lindley, T. Todd; Vitale, Jeffrey D. // Electronic Journal of Operational Meteorology;2012, Vol. 13 Issue 4, p46 

    The National Weather Service issues Red Flag Warnings in agreement with land management agencies when relative humidity, wind speed, and fuels meet or exceed critical thresholds supportive of extreme burning conditions within a local vegetative and climatic regime. The degree to which relative...

  • Determining an Optimal Decay Factor for Bias-Correcting MOS Temperature and Dewpoint Forecasts. Glahn, Bob // Weather & Forecasting;Aug2014, Vol. 29 Issue 4, p1076 

    Model output statistics (MOS) forecast relationships for temperature and dewpoint developed with least squares regression and put into operation by the National Weather Service (NWS) are unbiased over the sample period of development. However, short-term biases within that period can exist, and...

  • One Cool Chart.  // Scholastic DynaMath;Jan2011, Vol. 29 Issue 4, p10 

    The article focuses on the wind-chill chart developed by the National Weather Service (NWS). It mentions that the chart indicates the relationship between the air temperature and wind speed to calculate the wind chill. A wind-chill chart is provided in the article with several questions related...

  • Intense and Extreme Wind Speeds Observed by Anemometer and Seismic Networks: An Eastern U.S. Case Study*. Pryor, S. C.; Conrick, R.; Miller, C.; Tytell, J.; Barthelmie, R. J. // Journal of Applied Meteorology & Climatology;Nov2014, Vol. 53 Issue 11, p2417 

    The scale and intensity of extreme wind events have tremendous relevance to determining the impact on infrastructure and natural and managed ecosystems. Analyses presented herein show the following. 1) Wind speeds in excess of the station-specific 95th percentile are coherent over distances of...

  • Heat Wave Scorches the District. Koconis, Benjamin // Washington Informer;7/1/2010, Vol. 46 Issue 37, p1 

    The article reports the heat wave in early June 2010 in Washington, D.C. According to the U.S. National Weather Service, the temperatures have exceeded the 90-degree mark for 16 days and since June 19, the temperature has not dropped below 92 degrees. It highlights the temperature readings at...

  • A Psychrometric Approach to Air-Side-Economizer Limits. Dougherty, Fred W. // Heating/Piping/Air Conditioning Engineering;Sep2011, Vol. 83 Issue 9, p58 

    The article describes the psychrometric analysis of a church sanctuary in Minneapolis. It discusses the excessive space humidity that occurs in high limits and allows economizer operation when outdoor dew point temperature exceeds occupied-space dew point temperature. It notes that psychrometric...

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of THE LIBRARY OF VIRGINIA

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics