TITLE

Assessing the Skill of Yes/No Forecasts for Markov Observations

AUTHOR(S)
Briggs, William; Ruppert, David
PUB. DATE
September 2006
SOURCE
Monthly Weather Review;Sep2006, Vol. 134 Issue 9, p2601
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
Briggs and Ruppert recently introduced a new, easy-to-calculate economic skill/value score for use in yes/no forecast decisions, of which precipitation forecast decisions are an example. The advantage of this new skill/value score is that the sampling distribution is known, which allows one to perform hypothesis tests on collections of forecasts and to say whether a given skill/value score is significant or not. Here, the climate skill/value score is taken and extended to the case where the predicted series is first-order Markov in nature, of which, again, precipitation occurrence series can be an example. It is shown that, in general, Markov skill/value is different and more demanding than is persistence skill. Persistence skill is defined as improvement over forecasts that state that the next value in a series will equal the present value. It is also shown that any naive forecasts based solely on the Markov parameters is always at least as skillful/valuable as are persistence forecasts; in general, persistence forecasts should not be used. The distribution for the Markov skill score is presented, and examples of hypothesis testing for precipitation forecasts are given. These skill scores are graphed for a wide range of forecast/user loss functions, a process that makes their interpretation simple.
ACCESSION #
22396173

 

Related Articles

  • A Climatology of Warm-Season Cloud Patterns over East Asia Based on GMS Infrared Brightness Temperature Observations. Wang, Chung-Chieh; Chen, George Tai-Jen; Carbone, Richard E. // Monthly Weather Review;Jul2004, Vol. 132 Issue 7, p1606 

    In the present study, hourly infrared (IR) brightness temperatures observed by the Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) over the region 20°–40°N, 95°–145°E in May–August 1998–2001 are used to compile a climatology of warm-season cloud/precipitation...

  • Toward Improved Prediction: High-Resolution and Ensemble Modeling Systems in Operations. Roebber, Paul J.; Schultz, David M.; Colle, Brian A.; Stensrud, David J. // Weather & Forecasting;Oct2004, Vol. 19 Issue 5, p936 

    A large gap in skill between forecasts of the atmospheric circulation (relatively high skill) and quantitative precipitation (low skill) has emerged over the past three decades. One common approach toward closing this gap has been to try to simulate precipitation features directly by decreasing...

  • Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts. Fundel, Felix; Walser, Andre; Liniger, Mark A.; Frei, Christoph; Appenzeller, Christof // Monthly Weather Review;Jan2010, Vol. 138 Issue 1, p176 

    The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (COSMO-LEPS) are improved using a 30-yr-long set of...

  • Warm Season Mesoscale Superensemble Precipitation Forecasts in the Southeastern United States. Cartwright, T. J.; Krishnamurti, T. N. // Weather & Forecasting;Aug2007, Vol. 22 Issue 4, p873 

    With current computational limitations, the accuracy of high-resolution precipitation forecasts has limited temporal and spatial resolutions. However, with the recent development of the superensemble technique, the potential to improve precipitation forecasts at the regional resolution exists....

  • A method for statistical downscaling of seasonal ensemble predictions. Feddersen, Henrik; Andersen, Uffe // Tellus: Series A;May2005, Vol. 57 Issue 3, p398 

    A model output statistics based method for downscaling seasonal ensemble predictions is outlined, and examples of ensemble predictions of precipitation and 2-m temperature are verified against observing stations in Scandinavia, Europe, north-western America, the contiguous United States and...

  • Forecasting with reference to a specific climatology. WALLACE, EMILY; ARRIBAS, ALBERTO // Monthly Weather Review;Nov2012, Vol. 140 Issue 11, p3795 

    Seasonal forecasts are most commonly issued as anomalies with respect to some multi-year reference period. However, different seasonal forecasting centres use different reference periods. This paper shows that for near surface temperature, precipitation and mean sea-level pressure, over most...

  • weather report.  // Clarendon Enterprise (TX);6/29/2006, Vol. 17 Issue 28, p5 

    This section presents a weather forecast in Clarendon, Texas fom June 30 through July 2, 2006. It also provides the total precipitation rate for the month of June compared to last year.

  • Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasting using a Deterministic Model Output over Iran. Azadi, M.; Zakeri, Z. // Research Journal of Environmental Sciences;2010, Vol. 4 Issue 2, p138 

    An attempt is made to produce probabilistic precipitation forecasts from deterministic model output over Iran. Due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, probabilistic weather forecasts can be used to quantify the intrinsic uncertainty in the output of meteorological forecasting models....

  • weather report.  // Clarendon Enterprise (TX);7/20/2006, Vol. 17 Issue 31, p3 

    A weather report on the total precipitation in Clarendon, Texas for the month of July 2006 is presented.

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of THE LIBRARY OF VIRGINIA

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics