False fears

Steidtmann, Carl
August 2006
Progressive Grocer;8/1/2006, Vol. 85 Issue 11, p89
Trade Publication
The article discusses the reliability of U.S. stock market conditions in forecasting grocery sales recessions. Prior to 1980, the stock market had a mixed record in forecasting recessions. It correctly anticipated the recessions of 1954, 1957, 1970 and 1974. After 1980, the market's forecasting abilities seem to have deteriorated. The market declines in 1980, 1990 and 2000 all coincided with a recession rather than anticipated one.


Related Articles

  • Main Street's Sharp Turn Off Wall Street. Sloan, Allan // Newsweek;1/14/2002, Vol. 139 Issue 2, p32 

    Discusses the role of the United States stock market as an economic indicator. Rise in major stock indexes since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks; Question of whether the rise in stocks signals recovery from the recesssion; Statement that while stocks are a leading economic indicator,...

  • HE'S NO. 1. and He's Not Happy. Adiga, Aravind // Money;Dec2002, Vol. 31 Issue 13, p104 

    Discusses the outlook of the U.S. economy according to David Tice. Tice who is ranked as the top investor in the U.S.; Profits that his Prudent Bear Fund has made; Reasons that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will fall to 3000; Recession that he is predicting; Learning experiences that can...

  • Market timing and yield spreads. Resnick, Bruce // Canadian Investment Review;Summer2003, Vol. 16 Issue 2, p29 

    Analyzes whether the U.S. yield spread contain information about international stock markets. Function of yield spread in predicting economic recessions; Statement issued by professor Jeremy Siegel on stock values; Development of probit market timing models for yield spread determination.

  • END PIECE. Macilwain, Colin // Professional Engineering;04/11/2001, Vol. 14 Issue 7, p92 

    Reports the economic recession in the United States. Factors attributing to the recession; Percentage rating of Nasdaq stock market loss; Optimism of American businessmen inspite of the economic crisis.

  • Obamanomics recession. Morris, Dick // Hill;6/9/2010, Vol. 17 Issue 64, p31 

    In this article, the author discusses the decline in the stock market which is believed an indicator of another recession in 2010 in the U.S.

  • U.S. economic outlook indicates no deviation from growth path.  // Fort Worth Business Press;12/24/99, Vol. 12 Issue 35, p23 

    Highlights Standard & Poor's Corp.'s Investment Policy Committee's United States economic and market forecast for the year 2000. Continued economic expansion; Favorable stock market outlook; Recommendations for the technology and telecommunication sectors.

  • MARKET COMMENTARY.  // Dow Theory Forecasts;7/16/2001, Vol. 57 Issue 29, p3 

    Reports the stock market forecast in the U.S. for the year 1999 to 2001. Average percentage of corporate profits; Result of the stock indexes for the June-quarter industry groups; Percentage of cash position for the stock market.

  • Pundits off the mark in '98, but forecasts keep coming. Stern, Deborah // American Banker;1/4/1999, Vol. 164 Issue 1, p25 

    Highlights the market strategists' forecasts for the United States stock market in 1999. Review of pundits' predictions for 1998; Corporate profit growth; Estimated earnings of companies in the Standard & Poor's 500; Dow Jones industrial average.

  • Economists: Double-Dip Recession Unlikely. Vekshin, Alison // Bond Buyer;8/7/2002, Vol. 341 Issue 31444, p5 

    Focuses on the assertion of economists over the possibility of double- dip recession despite slump in the stock market in the U.S. Decrease in gross domestic product; Prediction over solid market recovery; Expectation of interest rate hikes.


Read the Article


Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics