Serial Clustering of Extratropical Cyclones

Mailier, Pascal J.; Stephenson, David B.; Ferro, Christopher A. T.; Hodges, Kevin I.
August 2006
Monthly Weather Review;Aug2006, Vol. 134 Issue 8, p2224
Academic Journal
The clustering in time (seriality) of extratropical cyclones is responsible for large cumulative insured losses in western Europe, though surprisingly little scientific attention has been given to this important property. This study investigates and quantifies the seriality of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere using a point-process approach. A possible mechanism for serial clustering is the time-varying effect of the large-scale flow on individual cyclone tracks. Another mechanism is the generation by one “parent” cyclone of one or more “offspring” through secondary cyclogenesis. A long cyclone-track database was constructed for extended October–March winters from 1950 to 2003 using 6-h analyses of 850-mb relative vorticity derived from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis. A dispersion statistic based on the variance-to-mean ratio of monthly cyclone counts was used as a measure of clustering. It reveals extensive regions of statistically significant clustering in the European exit region of the North Atlantic storm track and over the central North Pacific. Monthly cyclone counts were regressed on time-varying teleconnection indices with a log-linear Poisson model. Five independent teleconnection patterns were found to be significant factors over Europe: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the east Atlantic pattern, the Scandinavian pattern, the east Atlantic–western Russian pattern, and the polar–Eurasian pattern. The NAO alone is not sufficient for explaining the variability of cyclone counts in the North Atlantic region and western Europe. Rate dependence on time-varying teleconnection indices accounts for the variability in monthly cyclone counts, and a cluster process did not need to be invoked.


Related Articles

  • Intensification of Aila (May 2009) due to a warm core eddy in the north Bay of Bengal. Sadhuram, Y.; Maneesha, K.; Ramana Murty, T. // Natural Hazards;Dec2012, Vol. 63 Issue 3, p1515 

    A very severe cyclonic storm 'Aila' hit West Bengal on 26 May 2009. The storm intensified when it encountered with a warm core (SST = 31°C) anti-cyclonic eddy (ACE4) in the north Bay of Bengal. The storm intensity increased by 43% due to this eddy, which is comparable with that (34%) obtained...

  • Ocean heat content for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting and its impact on storm surge. Lin, I.-I.; Goni, Gustavo; Knaff, John; Forbes, Cristina; Ali, M. // Natural Hazards;Apr2013, Vol. 66 Issue 3, p1481 

    Accurate tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts are vital to storm surge prediction and risk management. However, current cyclone intensity forecast skill is deficient, especially for rapid, unexpected intensification events. These sudden intensification events could be catastrophic if...

  • Developing a new sinuosity index for cyclone tracks in the tropical South Pacific. Terry, James; Gienko, Gennady // Natural Hazards;Nov2011, Vol. 59 Issue 2, p1161 

    This paper introduces a new metric for tropical cyclone track shape within the tropical South Pacific (TSP) basin, based on measurements of track sinuosity. A sinuosity index (SI) is developed by applying a simple cube-root transformation to original track sinuosity values. Based on the...

  • Risk Assessment of Storm Surge of Kutubdia Island Using GIS. Ahmed, Musfique; Anwar, Rifat // International Proceedings of Computer Science & Information Tech;2012, Vol. 28, p178 

    Bangladesh is one of the most cyclone prone areas on earth. Southwestern part (Chittagong-Cox's Bazar) coastal zone is the most affected and important cyclone prone zone of Bangladesh. Kutubdia is an upazilla of Cox's Bazar, which is adversely affected by cyclone and storm surge almost every...

  • Investigation of the differences between deepening and intensification for 500-hpa cyclones in central and East Mediterranean region during warm season of the year. Spanos, S. // Advances in Geosciences;2006, Vol. 7, p137 

    The maximum deepening rate per cyclone track is determined by the maximum height drop at the center of the cyclone (500-hPa low) on the basis of all the 6-h successive steps in its life cycle. The geopotential height gradient is calculated over the entire low area and the calculation continued...

  • The life cycle of a simulated marine cyclone: Energetics... Balasubramanian, G.; Yau, M.K. // Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences;2/15/96, Vol. 53 Issue 4, p639 

    Presents an analysis on the life cycle of the marine cyclone. What is involved in the cycle of the cyclone.

  • Tropical cyclones tracks classification due to their characteristic. Medyna, Piotr; Wiśniewski, Bernard; Kamionowski, Paweł // Scientific Journals of The Maritime University of Szczecin, Zesz;2012, Vol. 104 Issue 32, p123 

    Tropical cyclones tracks on the North Atlantic basin were categorized (years 1989-2009). Standard environmental patterns were used. Authors took into consideration cyclones motion parameters and their changes. Recurving, left-turning, nonrecurving, looping and erratic tracks were described.

  • Climatological Variations in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks. Colbert, Angela J.; Soden, Brian J. // Journal of Climate;Jan2012, Vol. 25 Issue 2, p657 

    This study investigates the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) tracks and climatological variations in large-scale environmental parameters associated with the TC steering flow. By using the Atlantic Ocean hurricane database for 1950-2010, TCs that form in the main development region...

  • THE INTERNATIONAL BEST TRACK ARCHIVE FOR CLIMATE STEWARDSHIP (IBTrACS). Knapp, Kenneth R.; Kruk, Michael C.; Levinson, David H.; Diamond, Howard J.; Neumann, Charles J. // Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society;Mar2010, Vol. 91 Issue 3, p363 

    The article focuses on the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTraCS), a tropical cyclone data consisting of storm position and intensity estimates with an interval of six hours. It cites the sources for IBTraCS including Hong Kong Observatory (HKO), Meteorological...


Read the Article


Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics