Modeling Movie Life Cycles and Market Share

Ainslie, Andrew; Drèze, Xavier; Zufryden, Fred
June 2005
Marketing Science;Summer2005, Vol. 24 Issue 3, p508
Academic Journal
We examine box-office sales in the context of a market share model. This is accomplished by developing a combination of a sliding-window logit model and a gamma diffusion pattern in a hierarchical Bayes framework. We show that accounting for the full choice set available every week not only increases the fit of weekly movie sales but also leads to parameter estimates that depict a richer picture of the movie industry. We show that movie studios appear to have a good understanding of the products they produce, knowing when to support them and when not to. We also show that the effect of the number of opening week screens is overestimated in traditional models. Our research indicates that actors have a direct and directors an indirect effect on consumers' movie choice. Releasing a movie contemporaneously with other movies of the same genre adversely affects box-office performance all around. Releasing a movie against movies of the same Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA) rating hurts its sales in the beginning, but there is a displacement effect, which leads to a less severe sales loss in the long run.


Related Articles

  • U.K. fetes Valenti. Dunkley, Cathy // Daily Variety;3/5/2003, Vol. 278 Issue 43, p35 

    Reports on the honor given by the National Film and Television School to Motion Picture Association of America president Jack Valentin in Great Britain. Contribution to the film industry in the U.S. and abroad; Fellowship award received at a dinner hosted by British ambassador to the U.S....

  • Court targets indie toppers. Dunkley, Cathy; Rooney, David // Daily Variety;12/2/2003, Vol. 281 Issue 41, p1 

    Reports on the progress of the lawsuit filed by independent film producers seeking temporary restraining order to lift the screener ban of the Motion Picture Association of America in New York City. Details on the request made under the lawsuit; Issuance of subpoena for specialty division...

  • BATTLE OF THE BAN. Rooney, David // Daily Variety;10/2/2003, Vol. 280 Issue 64, p1 

    Reports on the protest of independent film production and distribution community to the Motion Pictures Association of America's (MPAA) ban on Oscar screeners in the U.S. Meeting of independent producers to discuss countermeasures on screeners ban; Refusal of United Artist president Bingham Ray...

  • Screeners trial adds plot twist. Rooney, David // Daily Variety;12/4/2003, Vol. 281 Issue 43, p1 

    Reports on issues related to the court case involving independent filmmakers and the Motion Pictures Association of America (MPAA). Appearance of Mark Gill in court to testify for the studios; Postponement of the final ruling by Judge Michael B. Mukasey; Temporary restraining order sought by...

  • Will 'Cooler' heads prevail? Kramer, Wayne // Daily Variety;8/18/2003, Vol. 280 Issue 31/32, SPECIAL REPORT. p22 

    Accounts the sentiment of film director Wayne Kramer concerning the NC-17 rating of his film 'The Cooler' by the Motion Pictures Association of America (MPAA) in the U.S. Reason given by the MPAA for the NC-17 rating; Concerns of the sales impact of the rating; Details on the sexual display in...

  • FEISTY FILMMAKERS. Rooney, David; Dunkley, Cathy // Daily Variety;10/10/2003, Vol. 281 Issue 5, p1 

    Reports on the opposition expressed by several film directors toward the decision of the Motion Picture Association of America to ban the screening of films nominated for the Academy Awards. Concern over the lack of recognition given to unpopular films; Names of participating directors;...

  • FULL-COURT PRESS. Rooney, David // Daily Variety;11/25/2003, Vol. 281 Issue 38, p1 

    Reports on the lawsuit filed by a coalition of independent filmmakers seeking a court order to force the Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA) to lift the ban in time to affect the awards season in New York. Accusation on MPAA for conspiring with studio chiefs to eliminate competitive...

  • Glickman off to Russia with 2-pronged agenda. Boliek, Brooks // Hollywood Reporter -- International Edition;3/28/2006, Vol. 393 Issue 37, p1 

    The article reports that Dan Glickman, the chief of Motion Picture Association of America is headed to Russia for the first time to plead his case for tough anti-piracy measures while filling a hole in his film going resume. While Glickman was quick to praise Russian filmmakers, arguing that...

  • Nat'l critics join chorus bashing ban. Rooney, David; Dunkley, Cathy // Daily Variety;10/3/2003, Vol. 280 Issue 65, p1 

    Reports on the decision of the Motion Picture Association of America to ban on awards-season screeners in the U.S. Position of the National Society of Film Critics on the issue; Formal protest issued by the Online Film Critics Society on the ban; Movie producers protesting the screener veto.


Read the Article


Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics