From Doom and Gloom to Shangri-La: Scenario Learning Revisited

Stearns, Dennis
May 2006
Journal of Financial Planning;May2006, Vol. 19 Issue 5, p52
Academic Journal
The article discusses a series of scenario learning exercises run by the Institute of Certified Financial Planners' Masters Retreat and the Financial Planning Association that attempted to predict the future of the United States economy. Possible scenarios included "good times," in which interest rates and inflation remain modest and high oil prices do not greatly hurt the U.S. economy, and "megatrend convergence," in which the collision of the information revolution, an aging population, and global climate change trigger significant swings between good and bad economies over the next decade. INSET: History of Scenario Learning.


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